A leading telecom body claimed 6G could add more than $1 trillion to the global economy in 2040 – if spectrum suffices.

GSMA in a new report noted that the economic benefit of future 6G networks could hit $1.24 trillion – equivalent to 0.7% of global GDP. The trade organization's prediction came with the provision that insufficient spectrum availability could put $520 billion of that haul at risk.

The report claimed China will yield $390 billion of additional 6G-driven economic value by 2040, with North America behind at $290 billion, followed by Europe at $225 billion.

GSMA found that mid-band spectrum will be responsible for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution by the end of the next decade. Low-band spectrum will contribute approximately 25% through coverage across rural areas, inside buildings, and other locations lacking in higher-frequency penetration.

To mitigate spectrum issues, GSMA called governments and regulators to prioritize availability of 2 GHz mid-band spectrum, subsequently releasing further capacity to meet the expected boost in 6G demand. This allocation would include upper 6 GHz spectrum, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz, and 7 GHz bands.

It also recommended making the 600 MHz band available for 6G for rural areas and the like, along with the 500 MHz band where appropriate.

The 6G global spectrum roadmap

The body also called for timely national spectrum roadmaps to help operator planning and investment.

Globally, this mission has been represented by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which is examining spectrum in the 4.4 GHz–4.8 GHz bands and 7.125 GHz–8.4 GHz bands. On the U.S. side, preparation work by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) preparatory process has seen stakeholders fail to agree on spectrum needs.

Besides the GSMA, the likes of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, and Intel back the 4 GHz proposition, while aviation businesses like Boeing and Lockheed Martin having expressed concern about coexistence and protection of systems operating in and around that band.

The GSMA is also backing the 6.425 GHz–7.125 GHz bands for full-power, licensed macro-cell mobile use, arguing that it is already sufficiently harmonized internationally to create a large enough equipment ecosystem to back 6G at scale. While the same operators are unanimous on the decision, U.S. policymakers, alongside Wi-Fi and cable-centered firms, have pushed to preserve 6 GHz spectrum for unlicensed use, arguing it necessity solely for Wi-Fi.

The 6G R&D view

Eric Hardouin, board director at the Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Alliance, recently touted the 6G opportunity to this title, while stressing operators will need to pair new spectrum in the 6 GHz and 7 GHz bands with legacy 4G and 5G bands to maximize commercial 6G spectrum availability.

This approach may hinge on using multi-radio access technology (RAT) spectrum sharing (MRSS) as a baseline solution, described by Hardouin as the "solution of choice for migration." But ongoing NGMN research has yet to guarantee MRSS implementation is possible without hardware impact.

On the subject of spectrum allocation, Hardouin argued that 6G capacity will be a problem mainly in dense urban and urban areas, while existing 5G capacity is likely to be enough in rural locations. As such, nationwide coverage obligations will likely be revisited when 6G spectrum is auctioned.

"Assume that you have a rural area where you have already 5G deployed. ... In that case, without deploying the new frequency band, you could still deploy 6G there," Hardouin explained. "There would be some software upgrade involved, obviously, but no hardware. So it would allow us to deploy 6G to deliver the value it brings to customers at moderate investment. It would still cost something because software doesn't come for free, but it would be much lower compared to if we had to to deploy new hardware."