Telecom industry trade group GSMA anticipates 2.4 billion 6G connections by 2035, with worldwide mobile network traffic to grow to almost 850 exabytes (EB) per month in 2035.

GSMA Intelligence predicts roughly 50 million 6G connections to be in operation by the end of 2030, with advanced mobile markets in East Asia, North America, and parts of Europe positioned to take the lead due to current high 5G penetration. These will include China, which is forecast to have more than half of 6G connections by 2035; however, the GSMA stressed the country wouldn’t be unique in reaching this level of adoption, with other leading markets to have around half of all connections on 6G in the same timeframe.

GSMA also expects worldwide mobile network traffic to grow fourfold from around 204 EB per month in 2025 to 846 EB per month in 2035, with annual mobile traffic growth nearing 15%. This will be driven not just by video but also by AI, extended reality (XR), and 5G fixed wireless access putting extra strain on uplink capacity. Rather than simply consuming downloaded content, AI-enabled devices, cameras, sensors, and XR systems will generate and upload vast loads of data to the network.

Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting for GSMA Intelligence, claimed that besides handling growing traffic, networks should expect AI to become embedded within the network, with coalitions such as The Next G Alliance identifying AI-native networking as a central element of the 6G roadmap. This is with the aim of improving network robustness, performance, and efficiency as traffic types, deployment topologies, and spectrum environments become more complex.

Iji also described integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) as a potential game-changer, with radio signals used to map surroundings, detect objects, and infer occupancy or movement. Key use cases would include infrastructure monitoring, industrial systems, and autonomous applications.

“More broadly, 6G encompasses greater integration between communications and computing, new spectrum and radio technologies, connectivity across a wider range of devices and environments, and higher levels of network automation,” Iji said. “For the industry, the more important question will be whether these capabilities can translate into new services, greater network efficiency and commercially sustainable use cases that are difficult to deliver with existing networks.”

5G ain't going anywhere

The rest of the decade will likely see operators expanding 5G coverage through 5G Standalone and 5G-Advanced deployments, paving the way for 6G. In fact, 5G will still represent roughly 60% of global mobile connections by 2035, compared with around 23% for 6G and 17% for 4G. 6G adoption in emerging-market regions is expected to remain below 10% as many operators continue network migration from 4G to 5G.

As such, Iji stressed 2035 will not mark a genuinely mature 6G market, as “more than three-quarters of the world's mobile connections will still be using an earlier technology, leaving considerable scope for migration beyond the end of the forecast period.”

Going beyond into the 2030s, Iji cited the GSMA's earlier Vision 2040 study, which estimates that 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum could be required between 2035 and 2040 to meet demand in high-population-density locations, increasing to 2.4–3.3 GHz in countries with higher demand.

“This compares with around 1 GHz of mid-band spectrum currently identified for mobile in most countries. The analysis therefore points to an additional mid-band requirement of 1–2 GHz, alongside continued improvements in spectral efficiency and network densification,” Iji said.