The Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment market – the infrastructure that enables cellular connectivity – is projected to flatten, according to new findings from Dell’Oro Group.

The analyst firm’s "Mobile RAN 5-Year July 2025 Forecast" suggests global RAN revenues will decline at a 1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, reaching $160 billion in cumulative revenue from 2025 to 2029.

While critical for connecting mobile devices to telecom networks, RAN hasn’t been a growth market for some time, having only clocked a 1% CAGR increase between 2000 and 2023.

But while Dell’Oro’s latest projection of a flattening market does little to inject enthusiasm, it follows two brutal years where the market lost nearly $9 billion in revenue.

“It is encouraging that market conditions are now stabilizing,” said Stefan Pongratz, VP for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, we should not get too excited and assume a swift recovery. Market conditions can fluctuate over the short term, partly due to the asynchronous nature of new technology deployments. However, these ebbs and flows don’t alter the fundamentals that shape the long-term trajectory.”

While 5G strategies are ramping up, with carriers increasing investments in areas like 5G standalone (5G SA), that spending is being offset by a decline in older LTE equipment and a shift in focus from expanding network footprints to increasing capacity.

Should mobile data traffic growth decelerate more than anticipated, Dell’Oro analysts suggest operators could instead pivot to a “maintenance mode” and significantly reduce their capital spending.

The emergence of 5G-Advanced won’t shift the dial on spending, according to Dell’Oro’s forecast, with operators expected to shift spending within existing budgets rather than increase them.

Earlier this month, Dell’Oro analysts projected AI-infused RAN would grow to dominate the market, with emerging tools like Nvidia’s Aerial Research portfolio projected to drive AI RAN representing a third of the overall market segment by 2029.

But this latest research suggests AI RAN, along with other emerging architectures such as open RAN and cloud RAN, will do little to expand overall market revenues and instead reshape how the market is divided.