AI-infused radio access network (RAN) looks set to dominate the RAN market, with new Dell’Oro Group research projecting the emerging technology will make up one-third of the RAN market by 2029.

RAN forms the critical infrastructure connecting mobile devices to core telecom networks. AI-RAN integrates AI and machine learning (ML) technologies into these networks to improve spectral efficiency and enable more efficient system utilization.

The research firm’s AI-RAN Advanced Research Report suggests the market for AI-RAN will exceed $10 billion by the end of the decade, with network operators enthused by AI’s ability to boost RAN performance and reduce operating costs.

The report suggests that the initial focus of the AI-RAN market will hone in on augmenting distributed-rAN (D-RAN) systems, single-purpose deployments, and 5G.

Operators and vendors have extensively promoted AI-RAN's potential to enhance these use cases, aiming to reduce the capital expenditure required for 5G infrastructure buildout.

“There is strong consensus that AI-RAN can improve the user experience, enhance performance, reduce power consumption, and play a critical role in the broader automation journey," Dell'Oro Group VP Stefan Pongratz explained. “Unsurprisingly, however, there is greater skepticism about AI’s ability to reverse the flat revenue trajectory that has defined operators throughout the 4G and 5G cycles.”

Beyond supporting 5G, the research suggests future AI-RAN deployments will focus on improving operational efficiency, suggesting the technology will help operators as they look to incorporate more virtualization, intelligence, and automation into their networks.

Dell’Oro Group suggested that existing RAN radio and baseband suppliers are “well positioned” to take advantage of the initial wave of AI RAN – a finding boosted by the fact that the top five RAN suppliers (Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung) were responsible for around 95% of the 2024 RAN revenue.

Those market leaders identified by Dell’Oro Group are already racing ahead to develop AI-RAN-focused solutions, with the likes of Ericsson teaming up with SoftBank earlier this year to explore potential applications.

But some unlikely market movers have seen Nvidia throw its hat in the AI-RAN ring. The first company in history to hit a $4 trillion valuation is doubling down on AI-RAN research to take on the incumbents.

Nvidia’s Aerial Research portfolio already contains a host of AI-powered tools designed to augment wireless network simulations. It is also collaborating with T-Mobile and Cisco to develop AI-RAN solutions to support future 6G applications.

It’s also working with some of those top five RAN suppliers, Nokia and Ericsson, on an AI-RAN Innovation Center. Unveiled last October, the project aims to bring together cloud-based RAN and AI development and push beyond applications that focus solely on improving efficiencies.

“The scope of AI’s role in the RAN is expanding, with operators now looking beyond efficiency gains and performance improvements, cautiously exploring whether AI can be monetized," Dell'Oro Group's Pongratz added. “The broader AI RAN opportunity goes beyond the traditional RAN market we track, including RAN automation and AI-enabled applications.”

The Dell’Oro Group findings came shortly after the one-year anniversary of the formation of the AI-RAN Alliance, an industry group centered around the technology that has already secured more than 100 members.

While the group has attracted a hefty membership pool in a relatively short period of time, it should be noted the number of telcos taking part, or rather, a lack thereof, with T-Mobile, Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison, Turkcell, and Vodafone part of the group’s 10 telecom operator cohort. In comparison, the remainder of the Alliance is made up more of hardware and software vendors.

However, the group did achieve a significant victory last August with the appointment of Alex Jinsung Choi, former head of the O-RAN Alliance, as their chair. The strategic move aims to leverage his experience, having helped in developing O-RAN specifications to their benefit.