Gartner has warned VMware is to lose 35% of workloads by 2028, with hyperscalers proving an attractive proposition for current clientele.

The forecast came in response to Broadcom’s recent licensing changes that put a stop to cloud providers from reselling VMware subscriptions, meaning customers must now buy licenses directly from Broadcom and bring them to their cloud provider.

The Register cited Gartner research VP Julia Palmer as saying the strategy does not count hyperscalers as true VMware partners, while hyperscaler competition welcomes customers with open arms to convert to what she dubbed “proper cloud.”

That move may be wise, according to the VP, telling her audience at a Gartner Symposium this week, “We are all addicted to hypervisors, and that needs to change.”

Palmer, though, advised against full migration off of VMware’s hypervisor platform due to a potential three-year timespan.

While suggesting VMware remained the best hypervisor option, the Gartner analyst recommended Nutanix as the next viable option.

That firm has nabbed “hundreds” of VMware defectors, with CEO Rajiv Ramaswami telling SDxCentral that VMware’s business model has “completely changed” post-Broadcom acquisition to focus on “creating value for their shareholders at the expense of their customers.”

“It’s no longer going to be there for the company that it was. It was a trusted, go-to partner for a lot of companies, now it won’t be.”

In a recent Nutanix report, equity research firm William Blair shared that market research firms were predicting up to 30% of VMware’s installed base of more than 400,000 customers “will eventually switch away from VMware.”

Palmer suggested public clouds as the next best destination after Nutanix. While Broadcom offered hyperscaler migration with its VMware Cloud Service Provider (VCSP) program, that program will be retired at the end of October in favor of an invite-only system, while its smaller cloud service provider-focused model will also be shuttered. The move is designed to shrink its partner ecosystem further, alongside hyperscalers’ commercial standing, with VMware believing it to offer a competitive offering to the cloud giants.

Of those giants, Microsoft has arguably set out its stall more than most, expanding partner incentives to migrate VMware customers to its Azure cloud platform.

But while Gartner ranks Microsoft's on-premises offering, Azure Local, Palmer noted its 16-host cluster limit is too small for many VMware users. The VP also highlighted Windows Server with Hyper-V, with the caveat that it is less favored by Microsoft than its Azure cloud service.

Broadcom remains relatively close to Microsoft, allowing users of VMware’s private cloud, Cloud Foundation (VCF), to use their licenses on the Azure VMware Solution platform. It also tapped Google Cloud as its first hyperscale cloud partner for VCF licensing. Amazon Web Services (AWS) hosts VMware Cloud, but is no longer able to distribute the service.

The VP also recommended Red Hat, but warned of a skills shortage in handling its OpenStack and KubeVirt offerings.

Palmer also didn’t rule out VCF, noting recent updates to the platform. Those changes in version 9.0 revolved around simplifying deployment, management, and operations of multicloud environments for enterprise customers, especially those that favor private cloud.

Broadcom pointed to VCF 9.0 having “cost transparency and cost control” for IT teams, in a bid to calm customers worried over VMware price hikes.

Those fears still haven’t gone away, with OVHcloud releasing a VMware solution this week targeting smaller firms of the sort Palmer said VMware remained too expensive for as an option.