Verizon’s fixed-wireless access (FWA) continues to sing with the carrier again posting strong connection growth backed by swelling network capabilities. That momentum is also aligning toward a possible segue into private networks as being the carrier’s next concert date.

The carrier added 384,000 new FWA connections during its most recent third quarter, which somehow matched exactly the number of FWA connections the carrier added during the previous quarter. That latest growth also outpaced what the carrier added during the third quarter of last year.

Verizon ended its latest quarter with 2.7 million total FWA customers.

Verizon’s FWA growth also continues to be the main driver of overall broadband growth for the carrier. Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg said this dynamic is going to plan, stating it’s using the FWA product to drive geographic broadband expansion over its fiber-based offering.

“Our strategy is clear that we want to take the broadband subscribers with the fixed-wireless access because we get them right now, it’s a superior product and we don't see a need right now for adding any fiber to that footprint,” Vestberg said. “Over time, of course, we will always look into it and anyone that would dispose of any telecommunication assets in the market will talk to us, but the hurdle is high. We have a great network and we have built a really good strategy around our technology.”

Vestberg said the carrier continues to target between 4 million and 5 million FWA customers by 2025, adding that it has constructed the network “for way more.”

That boastfulness is backed by the ongoing integration of additional C-band spectrum that the carrier gained early access to in August. That additional capacity will initially go to bolster Verizon’s current urban cell sites, with geographic expansion planned to begin next year.

“That's an even greater opportunity for us because there are more underserved markets and our fixed-wireless access will come extremely quickly into those markets,” Vestberg said of those expansion plans.

Verizon is also sitting on a trove of millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum that it continues to roll out in dense areas to back its C-band spectrum.

“This is how we built our network from the beginning — to be able, from the data center to the edge of the network, to have a total harmonized network that can move all the data. And then at the edge of the network we will have different types of access technologies in order to serve our customers, and fixed-wireless access can serve many different use cases,” Vestberg said of the carrier’s view toward its network assets.

Analyst have noted an increased focused by operators toward using deep mmWave spectrum assets to counter growing data usage. Dell’Oro Group VP Stefan Pongratz noted in a recent report that Verizon and T-Mobile US stated that the average FWA user consumes 300 gigabytes and 450 gigabytes of data per month, respectively.

“This raises the question of how many subscribers the operators can target while maximizing profitability, and whether mmWave spectrum can be an economically viable option in areas where the upper mid-band is exhausted,” Pongratz wrote. “Operators still have some time, but it’s the right moment to start planning for the next steps.”

Despite analyst concerns over the long-term financial viability of FWA services due to potential spectrum constraints and that impact on broader network quality compared to fiber, Verizon remains bullish on its ability to handle that surge.

Vestberg said Verizon has seen better-than-expected capacity growth tied to software and radio advances. “I have no hesitation over the assumptions we’ve made,” the exec said.

Verizon’s FWA bullishness remains in contrast to at least one rival: AT&T.

That carrier last week reported a modest 25,000 FWA connection additions to its nascent Internet Air product, which AT&T management remains cautious about unleashing.

“We view this service as yet another tool in our productivity toolbox,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said during the carrier’s Q3 earnings call. “While it will primarily act as a targeted catch product, we’ve been pleased with the positive early reception.”

Verizon’s other rival – T-Mobile US – was an early entrant into the modern FWA space and has maintained a similar willingness in extending the reach of that service. However, the carrier has talked about limiting the reach of its 5G-based FWA service to maintain network quality.

T-Mobile’s latest efforts will be updated when it announces its Q3 numbers later this week.

Verizon also continues to see opportunities in the still-evolving private network space. Vestberg said most of the carrier’s work today continues to be around proof of concepts (PoCs) but is building toward commercial deployments.

“They start pretty small,” Vestberg said of the carrier’s private network work. “They start as Wi-Fi substitution and then when it works, let’s say you have one big logistics company, they take the one logistics center and then they do it in all. We are in the phase of ramping that up to do one-to-many at the moment.”

Those efforts are also taking advantage of the licensed spectrum model that Verizon – like other wireless operators – brings to the table. This model is in contrast to private 5G systems that use unlicensed or quasi-licensed spectrum bands from vendors, hyperscalers and system integrators (SIs).

“When it comes to private networks, we see demand for the product continue to grow, especially those solutions built with licensed spectrum, which provides a more secure and differentiated experience for the end users,” Vestberg explained.

What’s next to propel the market is the ability to make the deployment process more regimented and repeatable, something that is being boosted by a maturing ecosystem.

“We also now have an ecosystem of products, infrastructure, modems, chips, phones and radios that can serve different use cases,” Vestberg said, adding, “that's why we're excited over it.”

This sentiment is in stark contrast to comments Vestberg made earlier this year when he lamented the ecosystem’s lack of maturity.

Despite the growing optimism, Vestberg did add that he does not expect private networks to start contributing “any significant revenues that have an impact on Verizon overall in 2024. We’re going to see that in 2025.”

“But why it’s important is that this is an area we've never been into,” Vestberg said. “This is a total new TAM (total addressable market) we can address by running private networks for different industries, for different large enterprises across the country.”