Networks are facing a unique and heretofore unimaginable test as untold numbers of people heed the call to stay home to limit the spread of COVID-19. This rapid shift in usage, behavior, and daily activity around the world is causing “unprecedented growth in global internet traffic,” according to early research from Nokia Deepfield.

Most networks are now projected to see growth rates of 30-45% this year, and some operators are experiencing a 20-40% peak traffic increase in the most impacted regions during the last four weeks. Most of those spikes are occurring in the evenings, and in some cases the growth is accelerating in a matter of a few days, according to Nokia’s network intelligence, analytics, and security division.

Nokia Deepfield analyzed data from networks in Western Europe, beginning with the first lockdown measures that were put in place to mandate physical distancing. While networks are thus far meeting the spike in demand, the vendor notes that networks are typically designed to sustain these levels of growth over the course of a year, not in the span of a few days.

However, the inquiry also concluded that aggregation networks and service edge routers may be reaching capacity. Nokia Deepfield expects those to be the most stressed components for network operators in the weeks and months ahead.

The top mobile operators in the United States claim their respective networks are also handling spikes in traffic without issue, but some behavioral changes are also taking root. Verizon said voice calls were up 25% on its networks during the last week, and calls are lasting an average of 15% longer. Wireless voice calls were up 10% last week, VPN traffic jumped 25%, and web traffic was up 22%, according to Verizon.

“For years we’ve seen a steady decline in the amount of time people spend talking to one another, especially on wireless devices,” CTO Kyle Malady said in a statement. “The move to staying at home has reignited people’s hunger to stay connected, voice-to-voice.” Some patterns are starting to emerge and Verizon anticipates additional shifts in usage during the next few weeks, he added.

In Western Europe, Nokia Deepfield noted a particular rise in messaging and social media apps. Traffic to WhatsApp jumped 217% during peak hours of the day after lockdown measures were instituted in the region, and traffic grew 500% the first Sunday after physical movement was restricted, according to the vendor.

Overall, network traffic increased anywhere from 30% at 5 p.m. (local time) to 80% at  9 a.m. (local time) across the region on the first day of at-home isolation. Traffic was also up between 50% and 70% throughout the rest of that day, according to Nokia Deepfield.

“We are witnessing an increase in traffic in both wireless and wireline networks. However, with prolonged times spent at our homes in the lockdown periods, wireline networks will play an increasingly important role,” Nokia Deepfield CTO Craig Labovitz said in a statement.

“While we continue to monitor the global and local effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on networks worldwide, it is crucial that we keep our cool. The lessons we are learning and the challenges we are facing will forever change the way we work, communicate, and entertain,” he added.

“A comforting thought is that we are at a safe place, technologically speaking. With the latest technology advances and standards, we have ubiquitous, sophisticated connectivity — from our home networks, across service providers’ and hyperscale realms,” Labovitz said. “The newest networking technologies are ready to rise to the challenges brought in front of them.”