Telecom network-focused spending is set to hit a wall, but exactly when that wall is hit remains in question.

Recent reports from ABI Research and Dell’Oro Group both predict telecom-related capex will hit a peak sometime over the next 18 months, with the former predicting a slowdown in mobile network-related capex beginning next year and the latter forecasting broader telecom network spending to drop as soon as this year.

ABI Research noted that the “outdoor infrastructure market” showed flat growth in 2025, and expects that trend to continue this year with global market capex to hit $92 billion this year and in 2027. Those numbers are then predicted to decline toward $65 billion in capex in 2031, a trend the analyst firm attributes to a lull between a wind down of spend on current 5G technology and a ramp on 6G spend.

“5G deployments have seen significant growth over the years, with industry estimates placing the current number of launched 5G networks at over 350 globally,” ABI Research Principal Analyst Matthias Foo wrote. “By the end of 2025, global 5G population coverage is expected to reach 60%, driven in part by rapid deployments in India, where more than 500,000 5G base transceiver stations have been installed within three years.”

Dell’Oro Group also reported worldwide telecom capex remained “stable” in 2025, with that spend spread across the research firm’s coverage areas of broadband access, microwave and optical transport, mobile core network, radio access network (RAN), and service provider router and switch.

The firm expects that spend to drop 2% this year, before posting a 1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. Specific to mobile networks, Dell’Oro Group predicts “capital intensity” will hit 11% in 2029, which will be seven percentage-points lower than during peak 5G investments.

“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,” Dell’Oro Group VP Stefan Pongratz wrote. “Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex.”