Ericsson has upgraded its forecast for 5G uptake over the next five years, claiming that “rapid early momentum” for the next-generation mobile technology means that 5G subscriptions are now expected to reach 1.9 billion by 2024, accounting for 20% of all mobile subscriptions at that time.

In its latest Ericsson Mobility Report, the Sweden-based vendor said it has now enhanced its forecast by an extra 400 million subscribers or 27%. Other predictions are that 5G coverage will reach 45% of the world’s population by the end of 2024, although this could rise to 65% if software is deployed to enable spectrum sharing between LTE and 5G. 5G networks are projected to carry 35% of global mobile traffic by that point.

The report also predicted that over 10 million 5G subscriptions are expected by the end of 2019 as more 5G smartphones in high-band (mmWave), mid-band (sub-2 GHz), and low-band (sub-1 GHz) spectrum are launched this year.

Ericsson, whose CEO Börje Ekholm has been critical of the pace of 5G rollouts in Europe, has no doubt been encouraged by a recent slew of announcements from operators around the world. Following early 5G launches in the United States and South Korea, there have been 5G launches by Swisscom in Switzerland, EE in the United Kingdom, and Telstra in Australia, to name a few, with other rollouts pending. China also just issued four 5G licenses, meaning that the world’s biggest mobile market is now on track to move into the 5G era.

North America is currently in the leading position and has been cited by both Ericsson and Nokia as the strongest market in terms of revenue. Indeed, the Ericsson report predicts that the uptake of 5G subscriptions will be fastest in this region, “with 63% of anticipated mobile subscriptions in the region being for 5G in 2024.” North East Asia follows in second place (47%), and Europe in third (40%).

Fredrik Jejdling, executive vice president and head of networks at Ericsson, has nevertheless warned that the full benefits of 5G can only be reaped with the establishment of a solid ecosystem, “in which technology, regulatory, security, and industry partners all have a part to play.”

With regard to the evolution of the 5G standard, Ericsson noted that the first wave of 5G service and device launches will be based on 5G New Radio Non-Standalone (5G NR NSA) architecture, which means 5G networks will be supported by existing 4G infrastructure. However, the vendor said suppliers are already working on the first chipsets supporting 5G NR Standalone (SA) architecture, and devices are expected to be available in the second half of 2019.

Ericsson also pointed out that LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology by subscription for the foreseeable future, and it is projected to have nearly 5 billion subscriptions at the end of 2024.