Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia continued to reign as the top 5G radio access network (RAN) vendors during the third quarter, but that prestige continues to lose its luster due to growing tarnish from a broader market slowdown.

Dell’Oro Group reported that those three vendors garnered most of the 5G RAN market’s revenues during Q3, maintaining what has been a consistent podium over the past several years. China-based ZTE and South Korea’s Samsung also maintained their positions to round out the top five.

However, the size of that 5G RAN pie continues to shrink as operators pull back on their network investments. Dell’Oro Group found that global RAN revenues posted a second consecutive quarter of “steep declines” during Q3, which was “primarily driven by reduced RAN investments in North America” that is overpowering increased investments in developing markets.

“The asynchronous nature of the 5G rollouts is in this case helping to cushion some of the blow in the U.S., though clearly not enough,” Stefan Pongratz, VP for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group, wrote in the report. “This remarkable RAN/capex decline in the U.S. market is partially offset by more favorable conditions elsewhere.”

U.S.-based operators have been vocal in their plans to slash 5G RAN capex over the next year as they look to generate a return on their initial multi-billion-dollar investments.

“When you see in the wireless industry that it seems like investment is in a trough right now, that has a lot to do with it,” Chris Sambar, EVP for technology at AT&T, said during a keynote speech at the recent Brooklyn 6G Summit. “We’re getting a little bit worn out with the economics of the industry,” Sambar said. “It’s a very healthy and vibrant industry. We’re seeing that in the earnings releases from the three mobile operators just recently, but at the same time the capital investments have to be logical. We have to have a clear line of sight to what the consumer use cases are for those capital investments.”

The “more favorable” conditions Pongratz alluded to include a robust 5G deployment in India. However, vendors know this avenue is coming to an end.

“Three-hundred-and fifty-five-percent growth is not something that you should expect to continue forever. It has been an incredible growth period in India,” Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark said during the vendor’s Q2 earnings call. “The investments continue but we would expect there to be moderation in the second half, and the overall result, I guess, will be that 2023 will be an exceptional year in India for sure. We will see some normalization in 2024.”

Nokia has since initiated a massive corporate restructuring that will result in the vendor slashing up to 14,000 jobs across its worldwide operations.

From a competitive perspective, Huawei’s No. 1 global position is backed by its near-total domination in its home market as well as continued growth in other developing markets. The vendor is, however, encountering growing headwinds in gaining any new business in Western markets.

This has opened the door a bit for Nokia and Ericsson, which Dell’Oro Group explained “are gaining revenue share outside of North America.”

Dell’Oro Group expects the 5G RAN market to continue to decline into 2024, with conditions to “remain challenging as the pendulum swings toward the negative in India.”