Gartner's latest SD-WAN Magic Quadrant report forecasts continued market growth and increased convergence of networking and network security to meet evolving demand.

The firm predicts end-user SD-WAN spending will grow at a 14% Compound Annual Growth Rate from 2020 through 2026. Gartner Senior Director Analyst Jonathan Forest said that growth reflects increased user demand for converged services.

“We all know about [secure access service edge], the converging of SD-WAN and the security services edge (SSE), making SASE,” Forest told SDxCentral. “When you see the convergence of these adjacent markets, you can envision those growth opportunities.”

Forest said this year’s SD-WAN report made the trend toward single-vendor SASE “very apparent.” He added single-vendor SASE solutions have wider market implications and expects they will become more prominent in the next couple of years.

The Gartner report indicated that by 2025, 50% of new SD-WAN purchases will be part of a single-vendor SASE offering, a significant bump from 10% in 2022.

Forest explained there are three different buying patterns emerging within the networking and network security markets: SD-WAN standalone; SASE – where SD-WAN and SSE come together; and SSE standalone solutions. He sees the single-vendor SASE trend coming mainly from SD-WAN vendors, but added “the security SSE vendors are reacting now.” 

“I think you're going to see more and more reaction from these SSE vendors, whether they acquire these SD-WAN vendors or they build their own,”  Forest explained. “I think you're gonna see a lot more single-vendor SASE vendors in the next year or two.”

Despite some saying the demise of SD-WAN is long overdue, Forest believes the technology will hold its place in the market. “There's no doubt everyone's talking about SASE, but that doesn't mean that people are not going to continue buying SD-WAN standalone,” he said. 

While he expects the market to see more single-vendor SASE offerings, Forest added SD-WAN requirements will continue to exist as part of SASE. “SD-WAN doesn't go away,” he said. “It's just part of SASE, but there's absolutely still going to be a market for companies buying SD-WAN standalone, just like there's gonna be a market for companies buying SSE standalone.”

The SD-WAN market remains in good health, but it isn’t growing as fast due to its maturity. Gartner estimates the SD-WAN market is over 50% penetrated, with Forest clarifying this means the overall WAN edge, including traditional routers.

While he still sees room to grow for vendors offering standalone SD-WAN, Forest said SASE “is really where the market is going.”

“There is a place for companies only offering standalone SD-WAN, but certainly the opportunities are muted,” he added. “For the vendors who do not have a SASE strategy, their opportunities are pretty limited.”