The rapidly accelerating spread of the coronavirus is bringing much of the world to a screeching halt and the supply chain for 5G network infrastructure is being strained as a result.

Most equipment vendors and manufacturers claim the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain has been negligible to date, but the situation on the ground around the world doesn’t jive with that outlook. Businesses and operations deemed non-essential are closing at an astonishing rate with no end in sight.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to recognize that the longer this pandemic continues the heavier toll it will have on the chain of suppliers that provide crucial gear for telecommunications networks. It’s only a matter of time before vendors that are projecting stability amid unprecedented calamity and uncertainty face bottlenecks in access, production, and distribution.

If anything has become abundantly clear during the 12 weeks since COVID-19 was first discovered in China it is that no person or company is immune from exposure. Supply chains face an uncertain future and until the virus’ spread is halted little can be done to alleviate the threats that our interconnected societies and businesses face at large.

“There’s going to be an impact to all kinds of businesses, but there’s also benefits that can be realized,” said Steve Canepa, global managing director of IBM’s telecommunications, media, and entertainment division. “One of the things that comes as a byproduct of what we’re seeing right now” is an “insatiable need for dissemination of accurate and complete and good information. And that in itself puts demands on the communications infrastructure.”

While the pandemic is undoubtedly causing negative impacts, there is also an unwavering resilience in the need for information, communication, and connectivity, he explained. “We think in some ways it will make getting to the benefit that 5G represents even more important.”

As growth stagnates — some economists anticipate gross domestic product (GDP) will decline as much as 50% and unemployment could hit 30% in the United States during the next quarter — the demand for 5G from enterprises will soften considerably.

The timing of this rapid volte-force in economic output could not have come at a more critical time for mobile network operators that have already invested tens of billions of dollars in 5G deployments. The spread of COVID-19 is also bringing standardization work to a standstill, particularly the upcoming Release 16 standard, which will likely delay the rollout of 5G in various industrial environments.

“The outbreak of COVID-19 has created a crippling effect, not only on service industries but also on manufacturing enterprises, including 5G infrastructure vendors,” Stuart Carlaw, chief research officer at ABI Research, wrote in a new report about the technological toll of COVID-19. “The 5G New Radio part of the supply chain has been particularly affected by this, especially because most 5G radio units and active antennas are being manufactured in China.”

Most 5G network operators rely on equipment from Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson, despite the rise of open radio access networks (RAN), Carlaw explained. “In addition to the previous geopolitical challenges that are halting operator rollouts, the new virus adds further strain and ambiguity in the 5G supply chain,” he wrote, adding that these disruptions will likely accelerate efforts to make 5G supply chains more robust.

“This will be particularly evident in the U.S. market that is currently planning to create a more open ecosystem that relies on smaller and more agile vendors,” Carlaw wrote. “Potential supply chain shortages for 5G equipment will reaffirm the strategy of the U.S. government to create a more open market, which will go beyond the U.S. market in the long term.”

The pandemic is also likely to delay the deployment of massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) antennas, which play a key role in 5G New Radio systems, according to ABI Research.

As of March 20, Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm said all of the company’s production sites are up and running. “This means that the short-term impact of the coronavirus on our supply chain has been limited to none,” he wrote in a blog post.

“Looking ahead to the future, we believe we have a resilient supply chain with production capabilities in multiple regions,” Ekholm added. “We also have access to components and other materials to keep production up and running. But naturally the shutdown of countries runs the risk of impacting our logistics chains.”

Nokia CEO Rajeev Suri was less candid in his assessment, but the risk of contagion has also worsened considerably since he shared comments on March 17.  “We are continuously monitoring the developing global situation and taking precautionary measures to maintain customer networks,” he wrote in a blog post. “This includes creating command centers to manage supply chains and overcome logistical challenges, and increasing virtual interactions with customers.”

With the world economy effectively halted for three months or longer, companies are facing a stress test of their ability to cope with extreme shocks, analysts at GlobalData wrote in a recent report. Consequences for the IT industry will be profound and at significant variance, but IT infrastructure companies may suffer among the most in the short-term due to problems with their supply chains, according to the firm.

Ironically, the labor shortages and restrictions on public gatherings that are straining the supply chain might also minimize the impact of a broken supply chain. Many network deployments are at an effective standstill. Even if equipment is available and on hand for installation, many of the professionals responsible for activating that equipment are working from home for the foreseeable future.

Network infrastructure is a dynamic and highly competitive market that necessitates a strong supply chain, economic growth, and a generally positive outlook for what’s to come. All of those factors are up in the air now as every indication suggests that we are facing a once-in-a-generation recession. Some are going so far as to describe it as a depression.

This calamity is without parallel, going back at least a century, and revenue generated by RAN suppliers will likely fall in the near term. Significant changes in economic output could cause operators to lower capex, but that period of downturn could also be relatively short, according to Stefan Pongratz, VP at Dell’Oro Group.

During the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, GDP slid from 6% into negative territory and RAN revenue growth dipped from 5% to 4% but it rebounded within a year, according to the firm’s data. “The suppliers might figure out how to minimize supply chain risks, but,” Pongratz wrote, “sooner or later someone needs to deploy the equipment in the appropriate location.”