5G cores remain incredibly rare — only 19 5G standalone (SA) networks have been deployed on these cores to date — and while that number could double in 2022, it still signals a “slow uptake,” according to Dave Bolan, research director at Dell'Oro Group.

“At a minimum, I would expect about as many as in 2021, but not more than 20 to 25,” Bolan wrote in response to questions. 

Reasons for the sustained delay in 5G core adoption remain varied. Demand for 5G SA capabilities lags because business cases are still under development for enterprises, and robust mobile edge computing services will be required for some features, Bolan explained. 

Wireless carriers are also weighing the viability of moving 5G workloads to public clouds, and that’s resulting in further delays, according to Bolan. 

“Less than a handful of communications service providers have committed to moving to the public cloud, but there are several that are still exploring the option,” he added.

Dish Network and AT&T are early adopters of that framework. Dish claims it will be the first wireless carrier running its core network functions and workloads on a public cloud: Amazon Web Services. And AT&T plans to move its existing network cloud to Microsoft Azure by 2024. Meanwhile, T-Mobile US and Verizon plan to continue running core network functions and services on private clouds.

While there’s nothing technically precluding operators from migrating 5G workloads to a public cloud at a later time, the possibility of that shift might make it more difficult for operators to justify the costs, Bolan explained.

Carriers can serve up 5G via dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS), 5G non-standalone mode, and 5G SA. “Only 5G SA requires the new 5G core, and many [carriers] seem content for the time being to stick with DSS and 5G NSA,” he said.

Industrywide slow uptake of 5G cores resulted in a projected 13% lower-than-predicted revenues for the global mobile core network market in 2021, according to Dell’Oro Group. The market research firm estimates 5G core revenue grew 61% from 2020 to 2021, and it now expects 5G core revenue to grow 18% year over year in 2022. 

The cumulative revenue forecast for the mobile core network market, including 5G, 4G LTE, and IP multimedia subsystem, for the period 2022 to 2026 remains over $50 billion, “but the forecast is now more backend loaded,” Bolan explained.

Dell’Oro Group expects the worldwide mobile core network market to settle at 3% compounded annual growth rate through the five-year period. 

Bolan points to multiple surprising holdouts on 5G standalone core adoption, including Verizon, AT&T, two of the three operators in Korea, and operators in Switzerland.

T-Mobile activated the world’s first 5G SA network in August 2020, followed later that year by all three of China’s largest carriers, and Rain in South Africa, according to Bolan. An additional 13 networks joined the 5G SA party in 2021, including Vodafone’s networks in Germany and U.K., Telefónica O2 in Germany, SingTel, KT, STC, M1, Smart, SoftBank, Rogers, Taiwan Mobile, Telia, and TPG Telecom, he added.

“5G SA network deployments have not matched the hype,” Bolan concluded.