AT&T continues to downplay the market opportunity for 5G-based fixed-wireless access (FWA) services, instead putting its financial and marketing power behind its expanding fiber deployments.

AT&T COO Jeff McElfresh restated those plans during a recent Bank of America investor event, noting that traffic growth curves require a deeper fiber investment.

“When we take a look at the data traffic that we serve over our wireless and our fiber networks, our network itself, we're calling for a 5x increase in net traffic,” McElfresh said. “And no matter what your last mile serving architecture is, that's going to require a lot of fiber. We've made that point pretty clear.”

McElfresh earlier this year – when he was CEO of AT&T Communications, a role he transitioned out of in April as part of a broader corporate restructuring – said the carrier planned to reach at least 30 million new locations with fiber by 2025. That includes 5 million new businesses, or around 50% of the addressable market.

Those deployment plans carry an annual capex of $3 billion to $4 billion, which translates to an upfront cost of about $1,000 per location.

McElfresh noted that the investment is necessary in order to provide “high-quality, premium broadband connectivity.”

“What we mean by that … is just really truly is physics,” McElfresh explained. “Multi-gig, symmetrical uplink is becoming a much more important component to your broadband experience. And the only technology that offers unfettered and broad and great experience is a fiber-fed network.”

That’s not to say that AT&T is against using 5G wireless technology to provide FWA service. In fact the carrier was one of the first to offer a “5G”-based FWA service and had previously stated that it served more than 130,000 FWA customers.

However, its conservative approach could have AT&T leaving money on the table.

CCS Insights recently forecast a 160% growth rate for FWA for 2022, hitting 7 million connections by the end of the year, and a staggering 83 million connections by the end of 2026. The research firm singled out North America as the current hot spot for the market.

And Ericsson’s most recent 5G Mobility report predicts FWA connections are going to grow 17% annually through 2027.

By comparison, Verizon executives continue to point toward fixed-wireless access opportunities for its 5G network, and T-Mobile US is working with on-premises device partners to power enterprise FWA services.