Mavenir, NEC and Nokia were singled out by ABI Research as leading open radio access network (RAN) vendors based on innovation and implementation metrics, which could set those firms up to take advantage of an expected thaw in the current open RAN market beginning as early as next year.

The research firm ranked those three vendors as “leaders” in its cross-reference matrix of “innovation capabilities” and “implementation factors,” with each of those categories based on several technical and market criteria items. Those criteria items were used to provide a total category score.

Mavenir garnered the highest individual score in each segment. From an innovation perspective, the vendor was noted as offering end-to-end hardware and software platforms, adhering to industry standards and collaboration with “major telco partners to accelerate open RAN adoption worldwide.”

That collaboration was also highlighted by Mavenir being judged a “leading implementer” based on trials and partnerships with operators, cloud providers and chipset vendors, and the expansion of its geographical coverage.

NEC was nearly as innovative as Mavenir, and just a bit behind in implementation. ABI Research stated that the Japan-based vendor has gained recognition by operators for its deep product portfolio, led by its unique radio units. NEC was also lauded for having achieved O-RAN Alliance compliance certification and its support of commercial brownfield open RAN deployments.

Nokia slipped into ABI Research’s top category, based on its active work with the open RAN community both through standards work and market trials with network service providers.

A quintet of open RAN vendors garnered a “mainstream” ranking from ABI Research, including Fujitsu, Ericsson, Samsung, Rakuten Symphony and Parallel Wireless.

Whether those rankings roll over into broader open RAN success remains to be seen. The market itself continues to slog through a malaise that has taken out some of its smaller players – as some predicted – but expectations are that the open RAN spring is set to bloom as soon as next year.

The latest forecast comes from Téral Research, which expects the current open RAN lull to persist through the end of 2024, “followed by 2025 as the trigger year.” The firm notes that trigger will be pulled by “the beginning of large-scale rollouts led by AT&T and Vodafone while other major tier-1 [communication service providers] will start their own small buildouts.”

AT&T’s plans could have the largest impact as the operator has pledged to spend up to $14 billion over the next several years to deploy open RAN equipment across its brownfield network. The carrier has stated it expects to have 70% of its wireless network traffic flowing through its open RAN platform by the end of 2026.

Téral Research predicts the open RAN market will grow at a 37% compound annual growth rate through 2029, at which point it will surpass $8 billion in revenues and account for 29% of all RAN revenues.

Dell’Oro Group recently noted that while open RAN revenues declined last year, it expects the ecosystem to grow its impact into the overall RAN market from around 10% in 2024, to as much as 30% by 2028.

“Current growth deceleration combined with the increased acceptance that open RAN is not some kind of magic solution that will significantly alter barriers to entry or overall market concentration, is prompting more questions about the rationale behind open RAN,” Stefan Pongratz, VP and analyst at the Dell’Oro Group, wrote. “The fundamental assumptions shaping the role open RAN will play in this RAN journey have not changed. Over time, operators will incorporate more virtualization, intelligence, automation and O-RAN into their RAN roadmaps.”