T-Mobile US and Verizon reported moderating growth of their 5G-based fixed-wireless access (FWA) products during the first quarter of the year, which could be the first sign of maturation of this once red-hot market segment.

T-Mobile US again led the way, adding 405,000 new 5G-based FWA connections during the quarter. This pushed the carrier’s total FWA base to more than 5 million connections.

However, that growth was significantly lower than the 541,000 connections the carrier added during the fourth quarter of last year.

T-Mobile US’ management repeatedly cited the positive operating metrics it was seeing from that service, but also remained steadfast on maintaining a ceiling of between 7 million and 8 million total FWA customers.

“We had originally said we saw this strategy leading to about 7 million to 8 million total customers in terms of opportunity,” CEO Mike Sievert said during the carrier’s latest earnings call. “We don't have any updates on that. I've said several times we're working on thinking about examining ways that we could try to extend that, and we haven't drawn any conclusions yet. We have to make sure it's done in an economic way and we have to make sure it's done in a way that customers will love and they have a fantastic product experience.”

Verizon added 354,000 new FWA connections during the quarter, which was at the low-end of expectations and well below the nearly 500,000 connections the carrier had been adding each quarter.

Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg hinted at the market’s maturity by noting the carrier’s FWA operations “is now a meaningful piece of our business.”

Sowmyanarayan Sampath, CEO for Verizon’s Consumer Unit, told an audience at this week’s MoffettNathanson Media, Internet & Communications Conference 2024 that the carrier’s FWA business was generating $12 more per month in average revenue per user (ARPU) than a year ago.

“We took away the initial discount we had and the premium mix is way better than what we had last year so it's actually a good business for us, good volume growth, but good ARPU growth as well,” Sampath said.

Vestberg’s “meaningful” comment was also highlighted by continued strong enterprise adoption of the carrier’s FWA offering. Enterprise customers accounted for one-third of those new connections during the first quarter, echoing what the carrier was seeing coming out of last year.

“On the business side, we're seeing new use cases that we didn't see before, all the way from coffee shops replacing cable with fixed-wireless access to large enterprises actually replacing with fixed-wireless access as well for different use cases,” Vestberg said.

That enterprise growth has drawn AT&T into the FWA battle, with that carrier reporting early momentum targeting that vertical.

AT&T, which was a late mover into the 5G-based FWA space, doubled its total FWA base during the quarter, adding 110,000 new connections to push its base to more than 200,000 connections. The carrier remains focused on driving that growth from its enterprise-focused operations, which it has said provides a more sustainable business model.

“I've said from the start that there are many businesses that do not have the characteristics of single-family homes, and as a result of that, fixed wireless can be a really effective way of meeting their needs and doing so at a value proposition, price and performance that makes sense for them, especially when you start to think about those companies that have a convergence of both fixed and mobility needs. It's a natural in those cases,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said during the carrier’s earnings call. “I'd like to participate in that market aggressively and I will go after it as aggressively as my competitors and picking up any of those business customers that I can on a national basis.”

One carrier that remains on the outside of the FWA battle looking in is Dish Network. The struggling operator has so far not entered that ring despite the growth opportunities.

Hamid Akhavan, CEO for Dish Network and its parent company EchoStar, told investors during the carrier’s most recent earnings call that it was looking at the FWA market, but it’s not a high priority.

“Fixed wireless is something that certainly is in the future, in the cards for us like everybody else is focused on,” Akhavan said. “At the moment, a higher priority for us is to make sure that we get our prepaid and postpaid business on solid footing, in migrating customers on net. The greatest economic advantage for us is loading up the network that we have now and then certainly we have access to a number of additional opportunities to focus on right after that. I don't see us doing that this year. For the rest of the year, we are solidly booked with optimizing our economics of bringing customers on net.”

Despite the challenges, ABI Research recently forecast that it expects the global FWA market to growth at a 14% compound annual growth rate through 2029, hitting nearly 265 million connections over that time frame.

“As the demand for a more connected world continues to grow, the performance and efficiency of FWA technology remain a key driver in bridging the connectivity divide, providing high-speed, reliable internet access in both the enterprise and consumer markets,” ABI Research Analyst Larbi Belkhit wrote.