Open radio access network (RAN) market growth continues to slow alongside the broader RAN market as operators take a breath from their initial 5G investments, but analysts note ongoing integration challenges need to be managed before the open RAN market can accelerate.

The open RAN market itself has cooled over the past several quarters, with Dell’Oro Group making its first downward revision to market growth. The analyst firm said it now expects open RAN equipment to account for between 15% and 20% of the global RAN market by 2027, which is 5% to 10% less than it had been expecting.

The firm remains bullish on the space but admits that deployment realities are becoming more evident.

“We can think of this revision more as a near-term calibration than a change in the long-term growth trajectory,” Stefan Pongratz, VP and analyst at Dell’Oro Group, noted in a report. “This journey of ‘re-shaping’ the RAN was never expected to be smooth and many challenges remain. Even so, our long-term position has not changed. We continue to believe that open RAN is here to stay, and the growing support by the incumbent suppliers bolsters this thesis.”

That vendor support could change as the overall market cools. Both Ericsson and Nokia last week reported stagnant market growth tied to forward-looking markets slowing their spending on 5G equipment.

Dell’Oro Group noted that operators remain vocal about open RAN deployment plans, but “have been more cautious with deploying open RAN, focusing on building out 5G using traditional RAN.”

The open RAN market’s ongoing position as a sub-section of the broader RAN market also remains a barrier as operator timelines are impacting deployment and market dynamics.

Analysys Mason recently cited an outside influence from operators like Rakuten Mobile in Japan and Dish Network in the US. However, both are greenfield operators with limited overall market power.

LightCounting Market Research came to a similar conclusion, noting a handful of open RAN operators – Dish, Rakuten Mobile and some Rakuten Symphony customers – “kept the market flat year over year and produced double-digit sequential growth.”

From a vendor perspective, Dell’Oro Group has pointed to Samsung, NEC, Fujitsu, Rakuten Symphony and Mavenir as the top open RAN revenue generators over the past several quarters. Samsung is notably the only open RAN vendor that also gained a spot on Dell’Oro Group’s more broadly focused traditional RAN leadership board, placing No. 5 globally and No. 4 outside of China.

Analysys Mason noted that integration challenges continue to stifle growth, with system integrators (SIs) finding issues in getting equipment from different vendors to work seamlessly.

“Having multiple vendors in a single network requires complex testing and optimization and significantly expands the role of the integrator, creating opportunities for vendor-neutral SIs but new challenges for operators,” Analysys Mason Senior Analyst James Kirby wrote. “These challenges relate to technical scope, but also vendor/operator communication, problem resolution and after-service support.”

The firm added that open RAN-related revenues for SIs and professional services organizations will surpass $10 billion by 2026.

“This represents a significant opportunity, and new and existing integrators should invest in this to become key enablers in the open RAN market,” Kirby wrote. “This includes all types of integrators: vendor-integrators, operators and third-party integrators. However, all parties have to be conscious that there is a need for neutral integration in open RAN, otherwise we could witness further lock-in by larger vendor-integrators.”