Verizon and T-Mobile US are inching closer to self-imposed limits on how many 5G-based fixed-wireless access (FWA) connections they can profitably support, but a recent report from network testing firm Opensignal hints those limits could prove low.

The Opensignal report found T-Mobile US’ average 5G FWA download speed has surged from under 60 Mb/s in late 2020 to 215 Mb/s in its most recent tests. Verizon’s results also increased – but at a more subdued level – from 46.4 Mb/s in late 2020 to nearly 149 Mb/s in Opensignal’s latest tests.

The analyst firm linked this ability to provide higher speeds to each operators increased deployment of spectrum resources into their 5G networks. This includes a significant infusion of so-called mid-band spectrum in the 2.5 GHz to 4.2 GHz range that each operator has spent tens-of-billions-of-dollars to acquire and deploy.

“The ability to roll out new types of services like 5G FWA supported by the acquired spectrum has opened opportunities for new revenue streams, which partially provide a return on heavy investment in spectrum licenses,” Robert Wyrzykowski, author of the report, wrote.

T-Mobile US’ speed broad speed advantage can be traced to the carrier’s deep – and increasingly deepening – mid-band spectrum position. Opensignal noted that the carrier was sitting on 218 megahertz of spectrum between 2.5 GHz and 4.2 GHz.

Verizon’s mid-band spectrum depth is slightly less at around 160 megahertz, but the carrier has been rapidly expanding the deployment of those assets to support higher network speeds and capacity.

The Opensignal report noted that Verizon and T-Mobile US have used their spectrum additions to increase their respective 5G FWA speeds despite an explosion of users and use of those services.

T-Mobile US added 405,000 new 5G FWA connections during the first quarter of the year, which pushed the carrier’s total FWA connection base to more than 5 million connections. Verizon added 354,000 5G FWA connections during the same time period, pushing its total 5G FWA connection base to more than 3 million connections.

While the 5G FWA numbers pale in comparison to the more than 100 million traditional cellphone connections on each carrier’s network, those FWA connections are consuming more than 10-times the amount of data compared to traditional cellphone connections. This has led both operators to implement strategic network monitoring platforms to guard against network performance degradation.

“T-Mobile and Verizon have network management policies that limit the stress broadband traffic places on the mobile network,” Wyrzykowski wrote, though the granularity of that traffic management could open up the ability for each carrier to grow adoption in new markets.

Is there room for 5G FWA growth?

T-Mobile US’ management has repeatedly cited the positive operating metrics it was seeing from its 5G FWA service, but also remained steadfast on maintaining a ceiling of between 7 million and 8 million total FWA customers.

“We had originally said we saw this strategy leading to about 7 million to 8 million total customers in terms of opportunity,” CEO Mike Sievert said during the carrier’s latest earnings call. “We don’t have any updates on that. I’ve said several times we’re working on thinking about examining ways that we could try to extend that, and we haven’t drawn any conclusions yet. We have to make sure it’s done in an economic way and we have to make sure it’s done in a way that customers will love and they have a fantastic product experience.”

T-Mobile US has recently bolstered the enterprise-focused positioning of its 5G FWA service with new devices from Cradlepoint to join those being offered from Cisco. Sievert has also noted the carrier was looking at other technology updates that could support more connections.

“What I’m working on with the team is, what can we apply from a technology standpoint, a capability standpoint as it evolves to continue on that strategy that’s very high return, excess capacity strategy, but potentially extend the [total addressable market],” Sievert said during a recent investor conference. “We have not drawn any conclusions about whether that’s a viable approach for us, but we are working hard on it.”

Verizon predicts 'way more' FWA connections

Verizon is in a slightly smaller boat, with company management predicting 5G FWA growth to hit 5 million connections by next year. However, Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg has boasted that the carrier has constructed its network to handle “way more” FWA connections.

Some of that “way more” is coming from the lucrative enterprise market, which has accounted for one-third of Verizon’s most recent 5G FWA connection growth. This could be significant as that segment typically has vastly different – and more network friendly – usage profiles compared to the consumer market.

“On the business side, we’re seeing new use cases that we didn’t see before, all the way from coffee shops replacing cable with fixed-wireless access to large enterprises actually replacing with fixed-wireless access as well for different use cases,” Vestberg said.

Verizon has also been tapping into its exceedingly deep pool of millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum to further boost swiftly-forming market opportunities.

AT&T past its 5G FWA peak

That opportunity has also peaked AT&T’s more conservative approach to the 5G FWA space. The operator only last year entered the market and has so far not drawn enough penetration to be included in Opensignal’s most recent research, but the research firm did note AT&T had 138 megahertz of spectrum between the 2.3 GHz and 4.2 GHz band.

That more limited capacity has backed the carrier’s more cautious approach to the market, with AT&T management stating a greater desire to use that capacity to target the enterprise space.

“I’ve said from the start that there are many businesses that do not have the characteristics of single-family homes, and as a result of that, fixed wireless can be a really effective way of meeting their needs and doing so at a value proposition, price and performance that makes sense for them, especially when you start to think about those companies that have a convergence of both fixed and mobility needs. It’s a natural in those cases,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said during the carrier’s earnings call. “I’d like to participate in that market aggressively and I will go after it as aggressively as my competitors and picking up any of those business customers that I can on a national basis.”

AT&T recently enhanced that aggressiveness by adding new enterprise-focused 5G FWA equipment and services from Cisco. This includes a pair of new gateways and remote management from Cisco’s Networking Cloud platform.

ABI Research recently forecast that it expects the global FWA market to growth at a 14% compound annual growth rate through 2029, hitting nearly 265 million connections over that time frame. However, it also noted that network integrity will be a key point to supporting that growth across all market segments.

“As the demand for a more connected world continues to grow, the performance and efficiency of FWA technology remain a key driver in bridging the connectivity divide, providing high-speed, reliable internet access in both the enterprise and consumer markets,” ABI Research Analyst Larbi Belkhit wrote.