Ericsson and analyst firm CCS Insights are both predicting 5G connections will top 1 billion worldwide by the end of the year, strong numbers that will be led by developed nations that are showing the ability to shrug off pandemic-led supply chain constraints and growing economic uncertainty.

Ericsson, which is one of the world’s largest radio access network (RAN) vendors, noted in its latest 5G Mobility Report that it expects worldwide 5G connections to surge from around 620 million connections at the end of the first quarter of this year to 1 billion connections by the end of the year. That growth will be on the back of more developed markets like North America, Western Europe, and Northeast Asia.

CCS Insights is predicting a more aggressive growth trajectory, forecasting there will be around 1.2 billion 5G connections by year-end. Its numbers are based on the growing number of smartphones that have embedded 5G radios.

Both reports did cite some uncertainty surrounding their forecasts based on broader, global issues.

“Despite 5G’s foundational years being clouded by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in difficulties in the mobile phone market and delayed network launches and expansions, the market is in a stronger position as we enter the second half of 2022,” CCS Insight’s James Manning Smith wrote in his report. “And although the world faces a turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook in 2022, coupled with supply chain difficulties, the transition of mobile subscribers to 5G networks is set to make good pace.”

Ericsson actually lowered its forecast a bit due to similar concerns.

“A weaker global economy and the uncertainties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have impacted our global estimate for 2022 by around 100 million, and the forecast has been adjusted accordingly,” the vendor explained.

Both reports are also predicting in excess of 4 billion 5G connection over the next several years.

CCS’ crystal ball showed there will be around 4.5 billion 5G connections by the end of 2026, though those connections will lean heavily on a small number of regions.

“We believe 5G is well on its way to becoming a mature technology in advanced markets such as North America and Western Europe, however, despite some high-tech hubs and pockets of 5G connectivity in the developing world, a delayed transition in markets such as India and the Middle East and Africa is expected,” the report stated. “Overall widespread 5G coverage has a long road ahead.”

Ericsson is more conservative on its growth expectations, predicting there will be 4.4 billion connections by the end of 2027.