A new GlobalData report predicts the global 5G market will continue to slowly grow over the next several years, led by advanced markets. However, it added that the broader market is still waiting for compelling services to help drive financial returns.

The analyst firm is forecasting that 48% of all cellular connections will be through a 5G radio by 2027, which is a solid surge from the 18% at the end of 2022. Numerically, that will be an increase from 1.7 billion connections last year to 5.5 billion connections in 2027.

That data was ahead of 2018 predictions from Ovum and Ericsson, which projected between 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion 5G connections by this year.

GlobalData’s penetration predictions are focused in the United States, China, Europe and India, which will all see 5G connections surge as a percentage of their overall populations. Specifically, the U.S. will see its 5G penetration triple from 53% of the population in 2022, to 162% by 2027; in China it will nearly double from 86% in 2022, to 154% in 2027; in Europe it will nearly quintuple from 15% to 88%; and explode in India from just 1% in 2022, to 40% in 2027.

GlobalData added that inflation and resource shortages will likely impact 5G adoption in 2023.

Fellow analyst firm Omdia earlier this year forecast a similar five-year growth curve toward 5.9 billion 5G connections by 2027. That Omdia report also noted that 5G connection growth in 2022 failed to match that of legacy 4G LTE connections, which was somewhat tied to only 31% of global mobile operators providing a 5G connection at the end of last year.

Backing that Omdia data, GlobalData noted the broader market had still not produced compelling reasons for customers to migrate from legacy connections to 5G.

“5G has not yet taken off as many network operators had hoped, and the technology still needs a strong, mass-market business-to-consumer (B2C) use case beyond fixed-wireless access (FWA),” GlobalData Principal Analyst Laura Petrone wrote. “Given how difficult they have found it to command a premium rate for B2C 5G services, wireless operators’ quest for propulsive consumer 5G use cases will continue. Cloud gaming, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) are among the areas likely to be mined for opportunities.”

Operators are indeed riding FWA as an early 5G use case.

T-Mobile US Chief Marketing Officer Mike Katz during the carrier’s most recent earnings call labeled the carrier’s FWA-based “home internet service” as “one of the big killer apps for 5G that you are seeing play out right now.” This was linked to the carrier adding approximately 600,000 new FWA customers during the first quarter, pushing T-Mobile US’ customer base to 3.2 million subscribers.

Katz added that those customers are using “hundreds of gigs a month on average,” including strong usage in rural areas, which he added for some was “the first high-speed option that existed and it only happened because of 5G. I don’t think we can forget about HSI being one of those big killer 5G applications.”

ABI Research predicts 5G-based FWA connections will hit 72 million worldwide by 2027, representing 35% of the total FWA market.

GlobalData also noted enterprises are increasingly warming to 5G connectivity options through private networks to power latency and security sensitive use cases like IoT and edge computing.

“Enterprises will increasingly look at wireless connectivity for branch offices in the more fluid hybrid work environment,” Petrone wrote. “Private 5G, in particular, is positioned as a complement to in-building Wi-Fi networks that, along with edge computing, will enable real-time applications such as AR, VR, video analytics and autonomous vehicles and robots.”