The nation’s cellular, broadband, and Wi-Fi networks can be as critical as roads and bridges, even if they can lack a perceived pizzazz of semiconductor fabs or artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Communications infrastructure connects chips and AI models to consumers, but it tends only to make headlines when it doesn’t work. Yet, it’s an important part of powering the digital world.

That’s why Deloitte introduced its inaugural communications infrastructure index (CII). With 20 key indicators synthesized into a single metric designed to be easily understood, this composite index offers a benchmark for evaluating the U.S. telecommunications industry’s growth and resilience.

We established a baseline (defined as 100) by analyzing historical data going back to 2019. We then evaluated 20 different metrics including wireless speeds, coverage, spectrum, customer satisfaction, reliability, investment, and jobs in the telecom sector.

Substantial progress since 2019

Overall, the index depicts a reshaping of the US telecom industry. The CII shows a 27-percent increase in six years, from the 100 baseline in 2019, to 127 in 2024, indicating advancements in infrastructure and connectivity. The average wireless speeds, wireless data usage, and broadband consumption have all more than doubled – paired with a dramatic expansion of 5G coverage nationwide since 2019.

The introduction of cellular fixed-wireless access (FWA) for home Internet has had a positive impact in availability, price, and choice for consumers, underscoring the dynamic and competitive nature of the industry.

Reliability may be the new bandwidth

The index indicates that carriers have largely invested the capital necessary to provide capacity for traffic growth. Reliability, then, could be a focus for future gains in the index. As bandwidth requirements grow more slowly than in the past – but people increasingly rely on their networks for daily activities like streaming, social media, education, and work – reliability may become more important than bandwidth in measuring the strength of our communications infrastructure. It could be a differentiator for operators.

What’s driving the next wave of telecom innovation

The next chapter of US telecom evolution may depend not just on technology, but on the combined momentum of private competition and public investment. Nonetheless, competitive intensity across broadband and wireless has supported innovation, including satellite connectivity, with new technologies having a positive impact on the CII. One new paradigm is “heterogeneous networks,” connoting interoperability between the public radio access network (RAN), Wi-Fi networks, wired networks, private networks, and satellites. We expect such interoperability to become an increasingly significant factor that could be measured by the CII in future years.

The government can play a role

Even with government funding, capital expenditure from communications services providers remains at least five times greater than government investment.

When available, government investment can help augment the larger pools of private capital and have an impact. And releasing more low- and mid-band spectrum could mitigate a reversal of the index performance for future years, providing ingredients for infrastructure to continue flourishing. Without more spectrum, delivering higher speeds and reliability for more applications focuses even more pressure on operational efficiency to satisfy investors, which can affect job growth for the sector.

Looking ahead to 2030: What it could take to stay ahead

For the US to keep pace with other leading countries and their telecom infrastructures, we estimate that the CII would need to grow by another 30 percent, reaching 165 by 2030.

Achieving this CII target will likely require additional actions on the part of network operators, their technology suppliers, and the government. However, capital investment by carriers is actually decreasing relative to revenues and depreciation, suggesting that net assets for the industry are either holding steady or may be at risk of decreasing in the future.

There are no guarantees and with no new wireless spectrum or recent generational technology upgrades or innovations, the index is expected to remain flat.

As generative AI evolves, it is expected to transform innovation and economic growth for the rest of the 21st century. Communications infrastructure should evolve with it. Next, generative AI (genAI) will likely require lower latency and processing on the edge. Neither are likely to happen without next generation networks, and if those networks aren’t created and maintained in the U.S., then the mantle of AI leadership that the U.S. currently enjoys may move elsewhere.