T-Mobile US closes out 2021 much like it began: the only wireless carrier in the U.S. running its 5G network on a 5G standalone core. Its mid-band 5G network currently covers 200 million people, and that runs alongside a low-band 5G network covering 308 million people. 

The carrier’s technical accomplishments and U.S. market lead on 5G are undeniable. Its lead on 5G coverage and depth of spectrum nationwide bear the markings of a sustainable lead, one that could even hold through the duration of the 5G era.

T-Mobile had a lot of wins in 2021, but it also suffered “the largest carrier breach on record,” said Zeus Kerravala, principal analyst at ZK Research. It’s the kind of low, an apparent historically bad one for the industry, that puts many of T-Mobile’s other accomplishments in a negative light.

Security Failings Weigh On T-Mobile’s 5G Outlook

Speeds and features are important, but a mobile network is only as good as its security stature. And T-Mobile has repeatedly shown it isn’t up to that task. The data breach that exposed personal data on at least 54 million people marks the fifth publicly acknowledged data breach at T-Mobile in three years.

A pattern of negligence and worsening theft further emphasizes T-Mobile’s continued failure to tighten up its security. The operator’s bonafide position as the market leader on 5G evaporated in the perception of many almost overnight.

CEO Mike Sievert apologized for the August incident and committed to improve T-Mobile’s security efforts in a bid to rebuild trust.

“I’m not going to be satisfied until we are second to none globally when it comes to cybersecurity, and we knew we needed help,” he said a month later at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia event. That help came in the form of long-term contracts T-Mobile signed with Mandiant and KPMG shortly after the operator confirmed the initial scope of the attack.

“We’re going to make sure that we learn from this,” Sievert said.

Will Security Drag Forebode Lasting Enterprise Slump?

Other than that, T-Mobile’s business is booming. It has the best spectrum position in the U.S., multiple meaningful leads on 5G globally, and it appears to be well positioned to command a leadership position through the entire 5G cycle.

However, all that wind in T-Mobile’s sails doesn’t mean much if it loses trust with its users. And that lack of trust could be especially painful for the operator among prospective enterprise customers.

T-Mobile is in position to finally break into the enterprise market in a more meaningful way. The operator’s business services unit has a current market share below 10%, and it intends to increase that up to 20% by 2026.

The problem for T-Mobile and its enterprise aspirations is that CIOs and CISOs can’t be as apathetic as individuals are about constant reports of sensitive data theft. Taking unnecessary risks is not advisable in IT. Potentially exposing private business information is a surefire way to get fired with cause.

Enterprises of all types and sizes care deeply about security. And now, instead of highlighting multiple meaningful leads on 5G in the U.S. and globally to prospective business customers, T-Mobile has to overcome issues of trust.

Nonetheless, the carrier claims it’s in active trials with 12 of the Fortune 50 on potential 5G services. It also remains well ahead of AT&T and Verizon on 5G coverage, and it plans to expand its mid-band 5G footprint to cover 250 million people by the end of 2022 and at least 300 million people by the end of 2023.

T-Mobile Defends Unceasing 5G Lead

“By the time we’re at 300 million, our competition has publicly stated they will try to get to where we are today as T-Mobile,”  President of Technology Neville Ray said at the BCG and New Street Research 5G Conference.

Verizon pledged to cover 100 million people with mid-band 5G in 46 markets by March 2022. AT&T, following a shedding of misbegotten media assets, effectively doubled its mid-band 5G deployment plans to reach 200 million people by the end of 2023.

While T-Mobile completed its first wave of mid-band 5G deployments in about 18 months, it’s carving out two additional years to increase its mid-band 5G footprint by 50% to 300 million people. The geographic area T-Mobile will need to cover to provide mid-band 5G service to an additional 100 million people represents five times the landmass that its mid-band 5G network covers today, according to Ray.

T-Mobile is also working to couple the uplink capabilities of its 600 MHz 5G network, which currently covers 308 million people, with the downlink capabilities of its 2.5 GHz network via carrier aggregation, Ray explained. This, according to T-Mobile’s internal testing, will extend the reach of in-building coverage, capacity, and performance of that 2.5 GHz layer by up to 30%, he said.

The operator continues to ride high on a streak of firsts, including industry and market-wide leads. It activated the world’s first 5G standalone core in August 2020 and remains the only U.S. operator with a 5G core 16 months later.

T-Mobile commands a strong position in the 5G market, but its lackluster security stature is a blight that negates at least some of its stellar performance.