The market for open radio access network (RAN) radio units is growing, but the grade of that incline is scattered. ABI Research predicts the total capex spent on open RAN radios for public outdoor networks will reach $40.7 billion in 2026.

The firm expects cumulative open RAN unit shipments to reach 9.9 million that year. It also expects a wave of open RAN growth to hit private indoor enterprise networks with cumulative unit shipments reaching 29.4 million, fueling $6.7 billion in spending in 2026.

The combination of public and private network spending on open RAN radios will surpass traditional RAN radios in 2027 or 2028, according to the firm. Total open RAN radio shipments will surpass $47 billion by 2026, ABI Research predicts.

“The open RAN opportunity invites various stakeholders to bring their best in class technologies and hardware/software components to contribute to building a flexible, secure, agile, and multi-vendor interoperable network solution,” Jiancao Hou, senior analyst at ABI Research, said in a statement.

Ongoing trade wars and the COVID-19 crisis are hastening the growth of open RAN, following “tremendous restrictions on the telecom supply chain,” he explained.

The firm’s projections are sky high compared to Dell’Oro Group’s latest open RAN sales predictions. Open RAN hardware and software will near 10% of the total RAN market, shipping 1 million units cumulatively and surpassing $5 billion in cumulative revenue during the next five years, Dell’Oro Group said in a report last month.

The wide discrepancy between each firm could be attributed to how much incumbent RAN vendors are included in the open RAN camp. Nokia and Samsung, in particular, have to varying degrees indicated they will support some aspects of open RAN. 

Both vendors are working on updates to their respective 5G RAN portfolios to virtualize and disaggregate at least some components of their 5G equipment. Samsung pledged to make its fully virtualized RAN 5G offering commercially available this fall, and Nokia said it will have an open RAN commercial offering available in 2021. 

“ABI Research sees new entrants will lead the early deployment for open RAN, but they will be increasingly challenged by tier-one vendors and system integrators for both public cellular implementations and enterprise deployment,” Hou said. 

Greenfield operators, enterprises, and mobile network operators with service in rural areas will drive the majority of open RAN deployments for the next five years, according to ABI Research.