World-renowned theoretical physicist and author Michio Kaku projected a "winner-takes-all" future in which the first nation or company to develop a marketable, general-purpose quantum computer could dominate the market and, by extension, a significant portion of the world economy. Kaku's comments came during his keynote at 2023 AT&T's Secure Connections event.

“In the same way after World War II, a handful of computer companies dominated the computer industry,” he said. “I think we're at another inflection point,” Kaku said during his talk about "Quantum Horizons: Preparing for the Future of Telecommunications and Cybersecurity."

Kaku reminded the audiences that quantum computers are not just theoretical — they exist, and Mother Nature is the grandest quantum computer of all. “Mother Nature does not compute with zeros and ones, Mother Nature computes with quantum.”

Currently, the quantum computers that humans have invented are fast but limited and dedicated to specific fields. “They're not generalized quantum computers yet. So I'd say within five years we're going to start to reach quantum computers that are competitive with standard digital computers on select problems, ” he said.

We are maybe 10 years away from building a quantum computer that can address almost any problem, Kaku added. “We're now going through an exponential curve … especially after Shor's algorithm came out, now everybody's jumping into the game.”

He defines quantum supremacy as “a time when a quantum computer can outrace by billions of times an ordinary computer on select problems where we hit that limit already.”

“Now we want a general quantum supremacy. We're not there yet. But that's the goal. The goal is to have a generalized quantum supremacy. So it'll be a regular digital computer on any problem,” Kaku said.

Kaku pointed out that two major groups are leading the charge in the global quantum dominance race:

• China has a very advanced system based on photonic quantum computers, he said. “photons travel faster than electrons, so therefore, there's an advantage there if you use photons, but, of course, wiring it up and adapting it to every single problem is much easier to use electrons than photons.”
• In the U.S., several groups are experimenting with different variations on electron quantum computers, he noted. “because electrons can be spin up, spin down and spin anything.”

Kaku reiterated that the nation or company that gets a workable and generalized quantum computer that can solve many problems will dominate the market and get tremendous economic benefits.

GlobalData’s study last year found the U.S. is about five years ahead of China in the quantum computing development competition, but China is catching up quickly.

Once the general-purpose quantum computer hits the market, it will unleash chaos as industries scramble to adapt or face obsolescence, Kaku warns.

For the cyberthreats that might come with the development, Kaku said it is the key to unlocking quantum computing's potential — using quantum to defeat quantum.

Workable general-purpose quantum computing might render existing asymmetrical cryptographic algorithms wholly with algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is expected to release its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standard next year to help address this challenge.

However, Kaku argues that quantum-resistant algorithms are “a contradiction in terms.”

“It's made up. It's a euphemism because the quantum system can break any classical system period,” he said.

But post-quantum preparedness using PQC standards means “you can resist the march of quantum computers by being one step ahead of a quantum computer.”

“NIST got it right by saying that the future is coming. It's not here yet. There's time. We have time. But if you wait too long, sooner or later, you can be whipsawed,” Kaku said