DENVER – The cloud and virtualization ecosystem is set to be a big driver of the 6G (yes, I said “6G”) ecosystem, and could accelerate the typical decade-long “G” upgrade cycle.

This proclamation was made at this week’s ConnectX event in Denver, where panel members for a 6G-focused session were asked to predict when the next G will hit the market.

The historical model is that each wireless technology evolution has a 10-year life cycle. And this notion was echoed by Paul Challoner, VP of network product solutions for Ericsson North America.

Challoner pointed to the standards work and technical requirements that will likely be folded into whatever 6G becomes, stating that those back-end processes will likely take to at least 2028. “So that's in line with a 2030, high-level industry aspiration to launch 6G,” Challoner said.

“The ecosystem is going to need more components in the system than for 6G, so the ecosystem development, standards development, and then the business education programs to build 6G are validated for different requirements,” Challoner said.

The Ericsson exec did add that this does not take into account outside influences that have impacted past technology evolutions, like geo-political challenges and worldwide sporting events like the Olympic Games.

Fellow panel member Ronny Haraldsvik, CMO and SVP for business development at Cohere Technologies, politely countered Challoner’s prognostication by stating that technological advances will accelerate that traditional calendar.

“That’s the way it used to be,” Haraldsvik said. “We don’t think it’s sustainable.”

Haraldsvik cited work already started on the standards process that is being propelled by new entrants into the telecommunications space.

“There are new ecosystem players … the Azures, the Amazons, the VMwares of the world that frankly have the ability here in the next couple of years to actually set up and configure networks in a matter of days and weeks,” Haraldsvik said.

This notion is already playing out with operators running their 5G networks as containerized functions on top of large cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

“Will the first iteration of 6G be all standardized and 3GPP endorsed? Probably not,” Haraldsvik added. “But will it be endorsed by big cloud players and some forward thinking, innovative companies and operators like Rakuten and maybe Dish? We think so.”