The edge compute market has been a slow burn for decades, but many view the surge in AI traffic as a catalyst toward that market finally catching fire.

This transition was top of mind during a panel at the recent Connect | New York event put on by SDxCental and sister publication DCD, where speakers noted AI-fueled edge workloads are set to drive significant revenue opportunities if challenges can be surmounted.

“I think the market is going to be totally bonkers five years from today,” Nabeel Mahmood, co-founder and CEO of Nomad Futurist, told the audience. “I think the AI factors are still going to continue to build more linearly versus the hockey stick effect that we're seeing. The progression is going to be in the edge space where we're going to start seeing that hockey stick curve over taking the AI buildup. … Instead of being billions-of-dollars worth of an industry, we're going to be trillions-of-dollars worth of industry. It's just going to be in a subset of what we're doing, versus just AI package and conventional data.”

Mahmood’s figures somewhat align with various analyst forecasts.

A recent Technology Business Research (TBR) report predicts edge compute spend will grow around 13% this year to $37 billion, which is a bit slower than the more than 15% year-over-year growth witnessed in 2025. That slowdown is expected to continue over the the next couple of years before rebounding to 14% year-over-year growth in 2029, with total edge compute spend that year predicted to hit $52.5 billion.

IDC figures global spending on edge computing solutions will increase from nearly $261 billion in 2025, to $380 billion by 2028. And for the mobile edge computing market specifically, Mordor Intelligence suggests the space was valued at $800 million, but is projecting the market to reach $3.88 billion by 2031.

Connectivity concerns

But to hit those marks, edge connectivity will be key.

Panel member ValorC3 CEO Jim Buie backed the notion that the edge will become an increasingly important location for workloads but cautioned over the ability to connect those locations.

“Everybody's so focused on power availability, and, yes, we have constraints and working through utility providers and the grid and all the off-grid solutions, but … do we have the fiber capacity we need for the next 20 years in the right places that we need to have it? We don't,” Buie said. “So as a data center operator, I'm very conscious of site selection, not only where I can collaborate with the local politicians, utilities to solve my client’s needs for power, but I'm very much engaged as well with the planning of fiber, not just for the initial deployment, but if I'm doing a 10- or 15-year contract with a client, I need to know that that capacity will be there for the full duration.”