Dell’Oro Group’s latest forecast indicates that the Broadband Access Equipment market is expected to peak at $19.2 billion in 2028, driven by DOCSIS 4.0 and rural broadband expansions. VP analyst Jeff Heynen highlights a shift toward AI-powered service convergence and the rapid adoption of Wi-Fi 7 and XGS-PON. With PON equipment and Wi-Fi 7 routers leading growth, this evolution redefines broadband as large-scale edge compute platforms.

“Quietly, broadband access networks are evolving into large-scale edge compute platforms, with the ability to enable service convergence far more quickly and easily than ever before,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “This evolution means that the revenue mix for broadband equipment is shifting over the next five years, with spending on traditional hardware and software now being supplemented by spending on AI and machine learning tools to facilitate convergence and service reliability.”

Key forecasts from Dell’Oro Group include the following:

• PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $10.5 billion in 2024 to $12.1 billion in 2029, largely driven by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, as well as FTTR (Fiber to the Room) and 50 Gbps deployments in China.
• Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment is projected to peak at $1.3 billion in 2028, as operators continue their DOCSIS 4.0 and early fiber deployments.
• Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to peak in 2025 and 2026, dominated by shipments of 5G sub-6 GHz and a growing number of 5G millimeter wave units.
• Revenue for Wi-Fi 7 residential routers and broadband CPE will reach $8.9 billion by 2029, as the technology is rapidly adopted by consumers and service providers alike.