ORLANDO, Florida – The Gartner equation for what makes a complete metaverse relies on three capabilities – transport, transform, and transact – VP and analyst Marty Resnick explained at this week’s Gartner IT Symposium 2022 in Orlando. But he said we won’t see metaverses that tick-off all three of those Ts until 2029.

Transport is the metaverse capability most are familiar with, which enables users to “leave this physical world and engage in a virtual one,” Resnick said. Gartner considers metaverses with transport functions like gaming and professional work spaces to be in the emerging stage, and according to the analyst firm, many are already there.

Advanced solutions that facilitate the transform piece of the metaverse – using virtual assets to apply change in the physical world – are beginning to take shape, but Gartner still anticipates there won’t be competition between advanced metaverses until 2024.

And by the end of the decade, we might see complete metaverses with transact capabilities, where there are economic infrastructures within metaverses. Resnick expects these infrastructures will largely rely on technologies like Web3, blockchain, and cryptocurrency.

“But we don't know," he added. "If you look at some of the major players out there, they're still using regular funds, credit cards, etc."

Resnick expects once complete metaverses emerge, the market will start to see “winners and losers,” along with more mergers and acquisition activity and “volatility.”

Gartner predicts that by 2026, 25% of people will spend at least one hour a day in the metaverse for work, shopping, education, social, or entertainment.

Gartner identifies several attributes as essential to be fulfilled by any metaverse use case, but Resnick said two of them – identity and interoperability – are standing in the way of metaverses becoming "the" metaverse.

“I’m not even going to guess when we will get to a place where it’s 'the’ metaverse,” Resnick added.

Gartner says identity as an attribute of metaverses ensures the ability to validate who an individual or organization is, regardless of their variation in appearance and other characteristics between the metaverse and the physical world.

Metaverses also need to allow for interoperability – the idea of connection from any device to any metaverse. Gartner considers today’s metaverse experience as consisting of “walled gardens within their own ecosystem,” and says to establish “the” metaverse these ecosystems need to interoperate with others, like sharing identities or currency.

Another consideration is “this idea of the impact that the metaverse is going to have on the rest of the world,” Resnick said, adding the already present environmental, ethical, legal, and political implications will only be amplified if existing metaverses become "the" metaverse.

“Overall, there's a lot that has to come together for a technology like the metaverse to really come to fruition,” he said.

Photo: Gartner VP and analyst Marty Resnick on stage at the Gartner IT Symposium 2023. Source: Gartner.