AT&T’s third-place position in the domestic wireless market could remain unchanged through the 5G era, as its failed efforts in media and entertainment continue to be a drag on the company.

The network operator maintains it will cover 70 million people with mid-band 5G service by the end of this year and 200 million people by the end of 2023.

Conversely, T-Mobile US currently covers 210 million people with mid-band 5G and plans to reach 260 million people by the end of this year, followed by 300 million at the end of 2023. 

Verizon this month accelerated its mid-band 5G deployment activity, pledging to reach 175 million people by the end of this year and 250 million people by the end of 2024.

AT&T’s 5G spectrum holdings in the all-important mid band also lag behind its competitors. It plans to deploy 80 megahertz of mid-band spectrum this year, and make use of 120 megahertz by year-end 2023.

T-Mobile has 100 megahertz of mid-band spectrum deployed today and intends to expand to 200 megahertz by 2023. Verizon’s at the lower end with roughly 60 megahertz of mid-band spectrum available this year, but expects to make use of 160 megahertz of spectrum by the end of 2023.

AT&T said its annual capex will remain around $24 billion this year and next, and it expects those costs to drop to about $20 billion in 2024. Roughly $5 billion of AT&T’s 2022 capex will be allocated to 5G deployments, the company said during its annual analyst and investor conference.

The company’s continued push to expand its fiber footprint carries significant costs as well. “Our current plan over the three or four years is about 3 million to 4 million new passings per year, and we’re on that pace right now,” AT&T Communications CEO Jeffrey McElfresh said. 

AT&T intends to reach at least 30 million locations with its fiber network by 2025, including about 25 million residential locations.

“We’re expanding our fiber footprint to reach more than 5 million business locations by 2025, or approximately 50% of the addressable market," Rasesh Patel, EVP and chief product and platform officer at AT&T Business, said during the event.

Those 5 million business locations include 4 million small to midsized businesses and 1 million large businesses, according to AT&T.

That company’s fiber expansion plan carries an annual capex of $3 billion to $4 billion, which translates to an upfront cost of about $1,000 per location.

More than 80% of AT&T’s fiber broadband customers are new customers, and business fiber customers stay with AT&T for an average of at least five years, according to Patel. The lifetime value of a business fiber customer is about $10,000, he added. 

While AT&T’s fiber aspirations generally match those of Verizon, the operator differs significantly with respect to fixed wireless access (FWA). It’s less excited about the prospects there, and instead remains focused on providing fixed broadband connectivity via fiber in most scenarios. Of course, that also limits its potential reach.

“We’re not opposed to fixed wireless, and I’m sure there’s going to be segments of the market where it’s going to be acceptable and folks are going to find it to be adequate right now,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said.

The company claims 130,000 FWA subscribers today.

However, Stankey’s general hesitancy with respect to FWA comes from “having played the catch-up game for a significant part of my career on the broadband side of the equation,” he explained.

“The reality is that the curve is moving away from the scalability of wireless. And I think as a result of that, I’m making a longer-term bet that a much higher percentage of the market is going to go for” fiber broadband, Stankey said. 

“I think that’s going to become more and more important frankly as applications become more demanding on the reliability and consistency of the bandwidth. And nothing is going to top fiber in that regard,” he concluded.