In the early days of 5G, mobile network operators pushed a futuristic vision for the technology — invoking a world of remote surgery, autonomous vehicles, and virtual reality.

The hope was that 5G would propel wireless connectivity to new industries and facilitate the creation of applications that are almost difficult to imagine, let alone realize. 

Some of that hope remains, but the luster of 5G and audacious potential initially pinned to it by operators and vendors most closely associated with 5G has waned. 

5G is here now — at least 189 operators in 74 countries deliver 5G today, according to the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA). With plenty of empirical evidence to draw some conclusions three years after its earliest commercial availability, the wireless industry has a pretty good handle on what 5G will and won’t deliver.

Never mind the elusive killer apps for 5G. What if 5G’s killer apps were staring right at us all along? 

It’s time to reset expectations in line with where things stand today.

“To be sure, it’s much too early to declare 5G a bust. But it is at least a worry,” MoffettNathanson analysts wrote in a recent report on the U.S. wireless market. 

That worry rests largely in carriers’ ability to glean additional revenue from 5G — especially business models that fuel growth in new sectors or services.

“In the absence of meaningful network differentiation and with no unique application niches big enough to fight over, the battle for 5G subscribers is being fought over price, promotions, and free giveaways,” MoffettNathanson analysts explained.

There are at least three services that are relatively new and advanced enough to justify the need for 5G. These include fixed wireless access, mobile edge computing, and private networks — all of which are deployed and in use today, to varying degrees and benefit.

5G Killer App No. 1: Fixed Wireless Access

As 2021 comes to a close, at least 81 operators globally are selling 5G fixed wireless access to businesses and residences, according to GSA.

“For the first time in wireless we now have a technology that can truly compete with fiber,” Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon said during the company’s investor event. 

“5G is now the fastest growing, last mile broadband technology and it’s really gaining scale,” he said, adding that 3G and 4G LTE technologies are not ideal technologies for home broadband. Qualcomm predicts at least 25% of global data traffic will be provided by 5G within five years.

Competition, of course, is rarely a one-way street. While wireless carriers are trying to eat into cable companies’ revenues for fixed broadband, those same companies have wholesale agreements with mobile networks that allow them to resell wireless connectivity to their customers at lower prices.

This dynamic fuels fixed-mobile convergence, a major trend in the U.S. market that’s expected to more than double in 2022 to account for at least 15% of broadband households, according to Analysys Mason.

5G Killer App No. 2: Mobile Edge Computing

Mobile edge computing presents another viable application for 5G operators. It’s here today in limited form, but widely expected to become broadly available and adopted. 

Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg recently claimed the operator created the MEC market and has a two-year head start in the space due to its early moves. It’s also the only U.S. carrier with edge services — eventually both public and private — slated to ride on all three of the world’s largest hyperscalers.

“This is a capability that we drove within the industry and then drew the partners into,” Adam Koeppe, SVP of network technology and planning at Verizon, said in a phone interview. “This is the mechanism by which you deliver low-latency solutions,” a main feature of 5G, he added.

Verizon claims the total addressable market for private edge compute will reach $1 billion by the end of 2022, and up to $10 billion by 2025. The MEC market opens up an additional $12 billion market opportunity around applications and services, according to Verizon.

However, there’s no guarantee Verizon or any mobile operator will attract the majority of future spending in MEC.

"Mobile edge compute is likely to be dominated by the super-scale cloud providers. And there aren’t any low-latency applications that matter,” MoffettNathanson analysts wrote.

5G Killer App No. 3: Private Networks

Finally, there are private networks — another well defined and obvious opportunity for telecom operators, but not a given.

The long-term, complicated relationship between mobile network operators and cloud providers makes its presence known here as well.

Wireless carriers have been assembling plans and striking partnerships for private networks for years, some to much greater effect than others. But with one quick push earlier this month from Amazon Web Services (AWS), the outlook for carriers quickly changed.

AWS Private 5G integrates small cell radio units, Outposts servers, a 5G core, and radio access network (RAN) software — all delivered and maintained by AWS. This alone makes AWS “one of the first companies to provide a packaged solution that includes the spectrum, radio, core, and compute platform, with the aim of easing adoption for enterprises,” analysts at Analysys Mason wrote in a research note.

Mobile network operators have long coveted a greater role and share of the enterprise market. The arrival of 5G, combined with an uptick of enterprises deploying private networks running on cellular infrastructure, provided an opportunity to break into the space.

Operators come to the table with core strengths in network infrastructure, deployment, and management. AWS, of course, provides enterprises the familiar cloud model with pay-as-you-go pricing based on consumption.

While wireless carriers view private networks as a significant opportunity, Analysys Mason notes operators’ role in the market has been limited thus far. Operators are the primary contractors on fewer than 10% of private networks in the U.S., and less than a third of private network contracts worldwide, according to the market research firm.

“The AWS announcement may affect future revenue for operators, but it does not threaten their existing business,” the analysts concluded.

This trio of applications highlights the opportunities and challenges wireless carriers continue to face in delivering the more realistic promises of 5G. It also underscores the difficult competitive landscape that every 5G operator has or will encounter in building businesses around each of these respective applications.

“We postulated two years ago that the 5G elephant in the room was that there was no clear revenue model for 5G, and, well, there still isn’t,” MoffettNathanson analysts concluded. “We still struggle to find applications for 5G that will translate to incremental revenues.”