Fixed wireless access will be among the most valuable use cases for 5G network operators, according to new reports that predict compound annual growth rates in excess of 70%.

ABI Research and Mobile Experts forecast that 5G fixed wireless access connections will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 71% and “over 70%,” respectively. ABI Research expects global 5G fixed wireless access to exceed 58 million residential households by 2026, and Mobile Experts predicts 5G fixed wireless access to serve 66.5 million customers by 2026.

Fixed wireless access is a decades-old technology, but its prominence and rate of growth grew substantially during the last year amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced billions of people worldwide to stay home.

Mobile Experts projects the number of global fixed wireless access connections will more than double to 190 million by 2026. “LTE (4G) will be the dominant technology of choice for larger mobile operators in developing regions, constituting about 60% to 80% of fixed wireless access connections,” Kyung Min, principal analyst at Mobile Experts, wrote in a report. 

“Meanwhile, 5G fixed wireless access connections will grow the fastest and will represent 35% of all fixed wireless access connections in 2026,” Mun explained, adding that he expects fixed wireless access to serve nearly 100 million customers by the end of this year.

ABI Research also predicts “5G fixed wireless access will be the fastest-growing residential broadband segment,” but adds the technology is starting from a very low point.

“Ongoing 5G network deployment alongside the development of extended 5G millimeter-wave (mmWave) solutions will allow service providers to offer high-speed 5G fixed wireless access services in both urban and low-density areas,” the analysts wrote. “5G fixed wireless access services are expected to represent 4% of residential broadband services in 2026, growing from less than 1% in 2020.”

Indeed, U.S. operators are ramping up plans to provide fixed wireless access services. Verizon earlier this year said it expects to cover 15 million U.S. households with 5G fixed wireless service by the end of this year and about 30 million households by the end of 2023. T-Mobile US said it intends to surpass 7 million 5G fixed wireless access customers by 2026.

This rise in 5G fixed wireless access adoption also fuels a corresponding increase in end-user devices, according to Mobile Experts. “LTE CPE unit shipments will steadily decline from 20 million units this year to 16 million in 2026,” Mun wrote, adding that 5G CPE shipment will grow at a 40% compound annual growth rate, more than offsetting LTE’s decline.

“The annual 5G CPE shipment will overtake LTE in 2026, and represent almost 50% of all CPE shipments” by 2026, he explained. Combined LTE and 5G CPE sales will also grow from $4 billion this year to more than $5.5 billion in 2026, according to Mun. The global pandemic has “exacerbated” demand for high-speed broadband access, and government funding programs will help bolster continued growth in fixed wireless access for the next five to 10 years, Mun added. 

Global and growing adoption of internet-connected devices for work and play underpins this accelerated pace of broadband deployment, according to ABI Research's Khin Sandi Lynn. “Many businesses are allowing remote working for some of their employees after the pandemic, which will boost the need for home broadband services even further,” she concluded.