The U.S. market’s three largest wireless telecom giants recently announced very ambitious (ambiguous?) plans to pool some of their spectrum resources, development might, and name recognition into a joint venture targeted at helping “satellite providers reach more customers through a unified platform.” Sure, that quasi-goal might be quasi-true, but the real reason this JV is venturing is all about the space money!
What’s space money? It’s unlimited, that what it is. Just like there is no gravity in space, there is no actual value placed on money in space. Billions? Trillions? Quadrillions? Sure! In space, zeros have no limit! (But do they make a sound?)
This recently announced and seemingly hastily established JV plan is being offered up as a benevolent way for more satellite service providers to gain “opportunities to compete, invest, and grow,” and that the JV “will work with rural mobile network operators to enable them to bring new products to market for their customers.” This will be enabled through a “technology neutral innovation platform” that will allow for “easy technical integration” to support new services.
Respective operator CEOs offered up a bit more detail last week during an investor conference with claims that the venture will allow for a more efficient use of spectrum and a “standards-based approach” to the development of mobile devices.
Translation: These operators will offer up some ready-to-use spectrum to space startups; use their market might to get that spectrum and any relevant satellite-transmitting technology embedded into consumer devices, and more importantly get that signal to their back-office systems for billing purposes; and help develop a platform in which to offer satellite-based communication services.
It’s all about the space Benjamins
But, we can all read through these CEO words and see the real reason for this venture: the aforementioned space money.
Telecom executives are obviously aware that satellite-based communication has over-indexed in terms of market hype as of late. They have been reminded of this fact on a seemingly daily basis with repeated questions from analysts regarding how these CEOs view satellite-based competition despite numbers that are showing very little actual customer usage of such services.
Case in point: T-Mobile US CEO Srini Gopalan, who runs the carrier with the longest history of working with modern satellite-based providers on a joint service offering, laid out that the carrier witnessed just .0002% satellite usage in May through its current Starlink arrangement, “that’s three zeros … so it’s clearly a complementary use case,” Gopalan explained.
Despite the zeros, these executives are also aware that the satellite communication space is being dominated or set to be dominated by the likes of SpaceX and Amazon Leo. These are two firms that are stacked not just with thousands of satellites orbiting the planet and thousands more set to join, but with marketing cache and its close relative: money cache. Lots and lots of money cache.
And while I don’t have direct access to a telecom CEO’s job description, I am guessing that the first line on that list would be to make money.
How much money are we talking about? Well, Omdia recently released a report that forecasts satellite-based D2D services will reach 411 million monthly active users and generate nearly $12 billion in revenues by 2030. That represents an 80% mean annual growth rate for users and more than 49% growth rate for revenues through the end of this decade.
Taking a step back, that’s not really a lot of revenues or reach compared with what cellular-based communication services offer today, but it’s what these numbers represent that is important: potential.
(Not) playing for potential
Everyone loves potential.
I liken this “potential” to how sports fans view backup NFL quarterbacks. They are typically viewed as the best player on teams because they have never had to show how they actually perform in competition. They make a few good throws during practice, look good sitting on a bench with a clean helmet and clothing, and try not to show any sweat when the fans start booing the starting quarterback.
Backup quarterbacks have used this position to pocket millions-of-dollars sitting on their unseen potential.
This is translating today to the satellite space.
Need proof? Just check out SpaceX’s pending IPO. Some reports have tagged a $1.25 trillion valuation to SpaceX post IPO, a number that would be impressive anywhere with gravity. And this is a valuation based on a lot of if/then potential scenarios.
Also, Amazon just spent more than $11 billion on satellite operations-rich but money cache-poor Globalstar. I know $11 billion is no longer a lot of money, but if that value is extrapolated to profit-generating telecom operators, shouldn’t there be a lot of zeros in play?
If they can get this JV together and spin it out into a separate operating entity, they could then angle for some of that free-flowing space money.
That potential explains how these telecom executives are playing this JV game. Keep the details light so as to not eclipse the “potential” play, repeatedly mention the word “satellite” to keep the space money handlers intrigued, and don’t let them see you sweat.
It’s like being a backup NFL quarterback: until you show your true talent you are talent full.
Whether a satellite-based broadband communication system is financially viable does not matter. What matters is getting a piece of that space money.
And that’s something you can take to the space bank.
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