The year will end as it began with four nationwide mobile network operators in the United States. This unchanged composition of the market was largely unexpected 12 months ago.

T-Mobile US and Sprint announced an agreement to merge their respective businesses in April 2018. While there have been many twists and turns in the 20 months since then, the nation’s third- and fourth-largest operators are effectively no closer to being a combined company.

A group of state attorneys general, led by California and New York, are trying to block the merger, claiming that market consolidation will lead to diminished competition, higher prices, and job losses. The carriers and attorneys general are currently battling it out in court.

The trial is expected to conclude soon with the judge’s ruling coming sometime in February 2020, but some reports suggest a settlement could be on the horizon before then.

Following nearly 15 months of hand wringing and glad handing, the scales tipped decidedly in favor of the merger’s approval when the Department of Justice (DoJ) reached a complex deal with T-Mobile US and Sprint in July. Under the terms of that agreement, the government agency requires the combined entity to meet 5G deployment plans and divest assets that will allow satellite television provider Dish Network to become a viable fourth nationwide operator of 5G services.

That deal calls for Dish to pay T-Mobile US $5 billion for Sprint’s prepaid business, which includes around 9.3 million customers on its Boost Mobile, Virgin Mobile, and Sprint-branded prepaid customers, partially offsetting the $26.5 billion T-Mobile US pledged to pay for control of Sprint. The settlement agreement with the DoJ also paved the way for Dish to acquire Sprint’s 800 MHz spectrum holdings and gain access to the newly enhanced T-Mobile US network for seven years.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) followed up three months later with its formal approval of the deal strictly along political party lines.

Until recently, Sprint had the most robust 5G network in the country. Despite having launched 5G in only 9 cities, Sprint's mid-band spectrum holdings in the 2.5 GHz band enabled it to provide more pervasive coverage than its competitors that initially relied on millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum for 5G.

That early 5G lead has evaporated. T-Mobile US was the last of the big four operators to deploy 5G service but it recently leapfrogged all of its competitors with a nationwide 5G network running on 600 MHz spectrum. T-Mobile US’ 5G network covers about 61% of the total population, a potential 200 million people, spanning a geographic range of more than 1 million square miles.

Executives at both carriers have consistently argued that their combined abilities will provide a more robust nationwide 5G network that would be superior to that being offered by larger rivals Verizon and AT&T. However, those opposed to the merger have argued that T-Mobile US and Sprint have successfully deployed 5G services as standalone companies, which somewhat negates that argument.

Sprint’s long-term prospects as a standalone company have been questionable for at least a decade. The company hasn’t hit rock bottom, but its downward spiral has continued unabated and markedly worsened since it reached the agreement to be acquired by T-Mobile US.

The operator has been in a holding pattern as it awaits the outcome of that proposed deal and remains positive that the last 20 months will have been worth all of the drama. Sprint executives have been reticent to even consider the possibility that the merger won’t be consummated, but they have repeatedly highlighted a dire outlook in a bid to win regulatory approval.

In a letter delivered to FCC Commissioner Geoffrey Starks, one of two commissioners that have opposed the merger, Sprint CEO Michel Combes noted that Sprint has lost $25 billion during the past decade. “Without the merger, the trajectory for Sprint will worsen and Sprint’s prospects will be limited. Sprint will be forced to further reduce its operating expenses, which means more job reductions…and our future as a standalone company will be in jeopardy.”

More recently in testimony provided at the trial brought on my state attorneys general, Sprint’s lawyers and executives argued that the operator would be forced to reduce its footprint and become a regional operator if the merger isn’t allowed to go through.

Combes skipped his keynote at MWC Los Angeles 2019 in October, and the company opted to not hold an earnings call with analysts when it reported its latest financial results in November. Sprint ended its most recent quarter with a total debt of nearly $37.37 billion.

During its latest earnings call, T-Mobile US CEO John Legere said he expects the merger to close in early 2020 and said the operator has “detailed integration plans” and is “preparing to start deploying Sprint’s 2.5 GHz spectrum soon after closing.”

Legere has every intention of seeing the merger through, but the clock is ticking because he’s already set a timeline to exit the company he began leading seven years ago. Mike Sievert, who currently serves as president and COO, will assume the position of CEO on May 1, 2020.

During his time at T-Mobile US, Legere has revitalized the company, frequently lambasted and surprised its competitors, and fostered a series of initiatives that changed many long-held practices in the industry. The outcome of the proposed merger with Sprint will factor heavily into his legacy and the market position he leaves behind upon his departure.