The key building blocks for 5G are on pace to meet or beat sales predictions outlined at the beginning of the year, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group. Looking back on figures for the first half of 2020, the firm is revising some of its outlooks upward and calling others effectively in line with expectations.

The outlook for 5G radio access network (RAN) and core infrastructure is now expected to capture 30% to 50% of total RAN and core market equipment revenues by the end of the year, according to Dell’Oro Group. “We have adjusted the 5G NR and core outlook upward to reflect larger than expected deployment in particularly China, which is more than enough to offset LTE capex on pace to decline more than 20% in 2020,” wrote Stefan Pongratz, VP at the research firm.

That growth is buoyed by a strong embrace of 5G standalone (SA) cores among early adopters, with operators in China, South Korea, the Middle East, and the U.S. leading the way. 5G core equipment and software sales accounted for nearly 15% of overall mobile core network revenues during Q2, and “the ramp-up in the second half of 2020 has already begun,” wrote Dave Bolan, research director at Dell’Oro Group.

The analysts also recently revised the outlook for massive multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) radios upward, noting that macro and small cell shipments were in the range of 50 million to 100 million at the end of Q2, likely surpassing its previous prediction for 100 million massive MIMO units shipped by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, the market for millimeter-wave (mmWave) radios is a mixed bag. “The outdoor mmWave market has surprised on the upside while the indoor mmWave market has taken a bit longer to ramp than we initially expected,” Pongratz wrote. Figures for both, which effectively offset, put mmWave on track to surpass 10 million units sold by the end of the year, accounting for up to 10% of the total 5G NR small cell installed base. 

Dell’Oro Group also said it might revisit its previous assessment for open RAN, which is developing at a faster pace than initially expected. The analysts, in a report issued last month, said open RAN hardware and software will near 10% of the total RAN market equipment revenues and surpass $5 billion in cumulative revenue during the next five years. It pegged open RAN to capture less than 1% of total RAN market equipment revenues this year.

A more recent report from ABI Research placed sky high predictions on the open RAN opportunity. Total capex spent on open RAN radios for public outdoor networks will reach $40.7 billion in 2026, according to ABI Research. The firm also said it expects the combination of public and private network spending on open RAN radios to surpass traditional RAN radios in 2027 or 2028.